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TY 20W(MINDULLE) losing tropical features//Arabian Sea: TC 03B(GULAB) developing an eye and intensifying//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) at Super Hurricane intensity again,01/15utc



WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 20W(MINDULLE). WARNING 37 ISSUED AT 01/15UTC

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY 12H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY 30H WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 40-KNOT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY 12H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY 30H WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 40-KNOT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS.
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
  JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS


2021092012  97N1567E  15
2021092018 102N1555E  15
2021092100 107N1541E  15
2021092106 109N1526E  20
2021092112 109N1517E  20
2021092118 109N1510E  20
2021092200 108N1503E  20
2021092206 110N1495E  20
2021092212 112N1486E  25
2021092218 118N1475E  30
2021092300 123N1460E  30
2021092306 130N1447E  35
2021092312 138N1428E  40
2021092318 141N1418E  45
2021092400 148N1410E  45
2021092406 155N1402E  45
2021092412 161N1392E  55
2021092418 167N1385E  65
2021092500 171N1381E  80
2021092506 175N1378E  90
2021092512 181N1374E 115
2021092518 184N1371E 115
2021092600 186N1369E 140
2021092600 186N1369E 140
2021092606 188N1367E 145
2021092612 190N1367E 130
2021092618 194N1367E 110
2021092700 196N1367E 100
2021092706 199N1366E  95
2021092712 201N1364E  90
2021092718 205N1363E  90
2021092800 210N1362E  95
2021092806 217N1357E  95
2021092812 220N1355E 100
2021092818 226N1355E 110
2021092900 234N1354E 115
2021092906 218N1354E 115
2021092912 249N1355E 110
2021092918 258N1359E 110
2021093000 267N1364E 100
2021093006 280N1373E  90
2021093012 292N1383E  85
2021093018 304N1393E  80
2021100100 321N1411E  80
2021100106 341N1431E  75
2021100112 358N1443E  65
NNNN
 

TY 20W(MINDULLE) losing tropical features//Arabian Sea: TC 03B(GULAB) developing an eye and intensifying//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) at Super Hurricane intensity again,01/15utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS AND WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES HAVE ELONGATED WITH EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON A CLUSTER OF WARM CENTRAL PIXELS IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 1049Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 IS AVERAGED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM THE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS AND WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES HAVE ELONGATED WITH EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON A CLUSTER OF WARM CENTRAL PIXELS IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 1049Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 IS AVERAGED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM THE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

TY 20W(MINDULLE) IS NOW TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
TY 20W(MINDULLE) IS NOW TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/ARABIAN SEA: TC 03B(GULAB). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 01/15UTC

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GULAB WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF OMAN UP TO 48H UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR). AFTERWARD, AS THE STR BUILDS, IT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OMAN, MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUSCAT AROUND 54H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 24-36H. AFTERWARD, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE DESERT LANDSCAPE OF OMAN WILL ACCELERATE ITS DEGRADATION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GULAB WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF OMAN UP TO 48H UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR). AFTERWARD, AS THE STR BUILDS, IT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OMAN, MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUSCAT AROUND 54H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 24-36H. AFTERWARD, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE DESERT LANDSCAPE OF OMAN WILL ACCELERATE ITS DEGRADATION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
0321092312 175N 947E  15
0321092318 177N 940E  20
0321092400 180N 934E  20
0321092406 185N 921E  35
0321092412 183N 910E  35
0321092418 183N 903E  35
0321092500 182N 897E  35
0321092506 182N 893E  35
0321092512 182N 888E  40
0321092518 183N 882E  40
0321092600 184N 871E  40
0321092606 184N 853E  40
0321092612 184N 843E  40
0321092618 180N 833E  35
0321092700 180N 821E  30
0321092706 182N 811E  25
0321092712 191N 801E  25
0321092718 195N 790E  20
0321092800 198N 779E  20
0321092806 200N 772E  20
0321092812 203N 767E  20
0321092818 208N 755E  20
0321092900 215N 741E  20
0321092906 221N 726E  25
0321092912 226N 714E  25
0321092918 226N 697E  25
0321093000 225N 689E  25
0321093006 227N 682E  25
0321093012 227N 669E  30
0321093018 228N 662E  40
0321100100 229N 653E  45
0321100106 230N 643E  50
0321100112 233N 636E  60
NNNN

TY 20W(MINDULLE) losing tropical features//Arabian Sea: TC 03B(GULAB) developing an eye and intensifying//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) at Super Hurricane intensity again,01/15utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) UNDER DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT POLEWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE TO REFLECT THE NOTABLE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND A MEDIUM EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) UNDER DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT POLEWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE TO REFLECT THE NOTABLE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND A MEDIUM EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO 48H. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE TO 650+ KM AS THEY LOSE THE VORTEX IN THE DESERT LANDMASS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO 72H ONLY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO 48H. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE TO 650+ KM AS THEY LOSE THE VORTEX IN THE DESERT LANDMASS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO 72H ONLY.

TC 03B(GULAB). HWRF AT 01/06UTC. INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 73KNOTS AT +54H.
TC 03B(GULAB). HWRF AT 01/06UTC. INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 73KNOTS AT +54H.

ATLANTIC: HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 36 ISSUED AT 01/15UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 130KNOTS/CAT 4 "SUPER HURRICANE" AND HAS LIKELY PEAKED FOR THE 2ND TIME(FIRST PEAK WAS 135KNOTS).
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 130KNOTS/CAT 4 "SUPER HURRICANE" AND HAS LIKELY PEAKED FOR THE 2ND TIME(FIRST PEAK WAS 135KNOTS).
1821091900 103N 115W  15
1821091906 100N 131W  15
1821091912  98N 147W  15
1821091918  96N 163W  15
1821092000  95N 178W  20
1821092006  95N 193W  25
1821092012  93N 210W  25
1821092018  94N 228W  25
1821092100  95N 247W  25
1821092106  95N 261W  25
1821092112  95N 273W  25
1821092118  95N 285W  25
1821092200  96N 296W  25
1821092206  96N 307W  25
1821092212  98N 319W  30
1821092218 100N 331W  30
1821092300 102N 344W  30
1821092306 105N 360W  35
1821092312 107N 376W  45
1821092318 109N 391W  50
1821092400 111N 403W  60
1821092406 114N 416W  65
1821092412 116N 431W  65
1821092418 119N 443W  70
1821092500 123N 454W  85
1821092506 127N 463W  95
1821092512 128N 472W 105
1821092518 131N 481W 115
1821092518 131N 481W 115
1821092600 134N 487W 125
1821092606 137N 494W 125
1821092612 138N 500W 130
1821092618 140N 503W 135
1821092700 145N 506W 130
1821092706 150N 511W 115
1821092712 154N 517W 105
1821092718 159N 523W 105
1821092800 165N 529W 105
1821092806 170N 536W 115
1821092812 173N 541W 115
1821092818 177N 547W 115
1821092900 181N 553W 115
1821092906 186N 559W 115
1821092912 191N 566W 115
1821092918 197N 573W 115
1821093000 203N 580W 125
1821093006 210N 588W 125
1821093012 220N 596W 125
1821093018 230N 604W 125
1821100100 243N 610W 125
1821100106 258N 616W 130
1821100112 276N 617W 130

HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

HU 18L(SAM). NHC/MIAMI WROTE: "Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical central Atlantic. Satellite images show that the hurricane still has a circular and quite distinct eye and closed eyewall. However, an 0827 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that a dry slot was present on the eastern side of the circulation between the eyewall and rainbands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 102-115 kt. However, Air Force reconnaissance data from earlier this morning showed that the winds were much higher, and in fact, the Dvorak estimates have had a low bias compared to the Hurricane Hunter data for the past 24-36 hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt for now. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. An ASCAT-A pass from around 12Z indicated that Sam's tropical-storm-force wind radii have expanded, and the initial wind radii were adjusted based on that data. In addition, the eye of Sam passed about 60 n mi east of NOAA buoy 41049 earlier this morning. The buoy reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb, maximum winds of around 45 kt, gusts to 62 kt, and maximum seas of about 22 ft."
HU 18L(SAM). NHC/MIAMI WROTE: "Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical central Atlantic. Satellite images show that the hurricane still has a circular and quite distinct eye and closed eyewall. However, an 0827 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that a dry slot was present on the eastern side of the circulation between the eyewall and rainbands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 102-115 kt. However, Air Force reconnaissance data from earlier this morning showed that the winds were much higher, and in fact, the Dvorak estimates have had a low bias compared to the Hurricane Hunter data for the past 24-36 hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt for now. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. An ASCAT-A pass from around 12Z indicated that Sam's tropical-storm-force wind radii have expanded, and the initial wind radii were adjusted based on that data. In addition, the eye of Sam passed about 60 n mi east of NOAA buoy 41049 earlier this morning. The buoy reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb, maximum winds of around 45 kt, gusts to 62 kt, and maximum seas of about 22 ft."

ATLANTIC: TS 20L(VICTOR). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 01/15UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND HAS LIKELY PEAKED.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND HAS LIKELY PEAKED.
2021092900  70N 220W  30
2021092906  75N 234W  30
2021092912  80N 241W  30
2021092918  81N 251W  35
2021093000  83N 260W  35
2021093006  87N 271W  40
2021093012  92N 284W  40
2021093018  98N 295W  40
2021100100 105N 306W  50
2021100106 110N 317W  50
2021100112 113N 330W  55

TS 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TS 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

01/1515UTC.
01/1515UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, October 1st 2021 à 20:05
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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