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TY 20W(MINDULLE) CAT2 will begin ET transition by 48h//North Indian: remnants of 03B still High//Atlantic: 18L(SAM)to peak at "Super Hurricane" again,30/09utc




WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 20W(MINDULLE). WARNING 32 ISSUED AT 30/09UTC

FORECAST REASONING.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DECREASING SSTS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, BY 48H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY 72H WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT APPROACHES THE SAKHALIN ISLAND.
FORECAST REASONING.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DECREASING SSTS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, BY 48H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY 72H WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT APPROACHES THE SAKHALIN ISLAND.
2021092012  97N1567E  15
2021092018 102N1555E  15
2021092100 107N1541E  15
2021092106 109N1526E  20
2021092112 109N1517E  20
2021092118 109N1510E  20
2021092200 108N1503E  20
2021092206 110N1495E  20
2021092212 112N1486E  25
2021092218 118N1475E  30
2021092300 123N1460E  30
2021092306 130N1447E  35
2021092312 138N1428E  40
2021092318 141N1418E  45
2021092400 148N1410E  45
2021092406 155N1402E  45
2021092412 161N1392E  55
2021092418 167N1385E  65
2021092500 171N1381E  80
2021092506 175N1378E  90
2021092512 181N1374E 115
2021092518 184N1371E 115
2021092600 186N1369E 140
2021092606 188N1367E 145
2021092612 190N1367E 130
2021092618 194N1367E 110
2021092700 196N1367E 100
2021092706 199N1366E  95
2021092712 201N1364E  90
2021092718 205N1363E  90
2021092800 210N1362E  95
2021092806 217N1357E  95
2021092812 220N1355E 100
2021092818 226N1355E 110
2021092900 234N1354E 115
2021092906 218N1354E 115
2021092912 249N1355E 110
2021092918 258N1359E 110
2021093000 267N1364E 100
2021093006 280N1373E  90
NNNN
 

TY 20W(MINDULLE) CAT2 will begin ET transition by 48h//North Indian: remnants of 03B still High//Atlantic: 18L(SAM)to peak at "Super Hurricane" again,30/09utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED 65-KM EYE. FEEDER BANDS ARE SLOWLY UNRAVELING AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS/CAT 2 IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE INFLUX OF NEAR SURFACE COLD DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED 65-KM EYE. FEEDER BANDS ARE SLOWLY UNRAVELING AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS/CAT 2 IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE INFLUX OF NEAR SURFACE COLD DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FEEDER BANDS ARE SLOWLY UNRAVELING AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP.
FEEDER BANDS ARE SLOWLY UNRAVELING AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 91W. DOWN-GRADED TO LOW AT 30/06UTC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1460 KM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING, ALBEIT DIMINISHING, CONVECTION SHEARED 260+ KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAK, N-S ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MEDIUM EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 91W IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1460 KM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING, ALBEIT DIMINISHING, CONVECTION SHEARED 260+ KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAK, N-S ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MEDIUM EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 91W IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/ARABIAN SEA: REMNANTS OF TC 03B(GULAB). TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 29/1730UTC

TY 20W(MINDULLE) CAT2 will begin ET transition by 48h//North Indian: remnants of 03B still High//Atlantic: 18L(SAM)to peak at "Super Hurricane" again,30/09utc
0321092312 175N 947E  15
0321092318 177N 940E  20
0321092400 180N 934E  20
0321092406 185N 921E  35
0321092412 183N 910E  35
0321092418 183N 903E  35
0321092500 182N 897E  35
0321092506 182N 893E  35
0321092512 182N 888E  40
0321092518 183N 882E  40
0321092600 184N 871E  40
0321092606 184N 853E  40
0321092612 184N 843E  40
0321092618 180N 833E  35
0321092700 180N 821E  30
0321092706 182N 811E  25
0321092712 191N 801E  25
0321092718 195N 790E  20
0321092800 198N 779E  20
0321092806 200N 772E  20
0321092812 203N 767E  20
0321092818 208N 755E  20
0321092900 215N 741E  20
0321092906 221N 726E  25
0321092912 226N 714E  25
0321092918 227N 696E  25
0321093000 225N 689E  25
0321093006 225N 682E  25
NNNN

REMNANTS OF TC 03B. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
REMNANTS OF TC 03B. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


ATLANTIC: HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 31 ISSUED AT 30/09UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 125KNOTS/CAT 4 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 130KNOTS BY 30/18UTC. NHC/MIAMI WROTE: "Sam is a very impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery this morning. The 25-nm-wide eye remains very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of convection with cloud tops around -65C. The outflow is also well established in all quadrants. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that performed three eyewall penetrations overnight has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 139 kt in the northeastern, southeastern, and eastern eyewall, and peak SFMR surface winds of 119 kt. These data still support an initial wind speed of 125 kt. Sam's minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars since the NOAA aircraft mission last evening. The latest estimated pressure from dropsonde data gathered by the Air Force is 937 mb. NOAA buoy 41044 has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 68 kt with a gust to 86 kt in the northeastern eyewall of Sam. The buoy has also reported peak seas of 40 ft. Sam could still strengthen a little today as it continues to move over a warm ocean eddy and remains in low vertical wind shear conditions."
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 125KNOTS/CAT 4 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 130KNOTS BY 30/18UTC. NHC/MIAMI WROTE: "Sam is a very impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery this morning. The 25-nm-wide eye remains very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of convection with cloud tops around -65C. The outflow is also well established in all quadrants. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that performed three eyewall penetrations overnight has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 139 kt in the northeastern, southeastern, and eastern eyewall, and peak SFMR surface winds of 119 kt. These data still support an initial wind speed of 125 kt. Sam's minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars since the NOAA aircraft mission last evening. The latest estimated pressure from dropsonde data gathered by the Air Force is 937 mb. NOAA buoy 41044 has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 68 kt with a gust to 86 kt in the northeastern eyewall of Sam. The buoy has also reported peak seas of 40 ft. Sam could still strengthen a little today as it continues to move over a warm ocean eddy and remains in low vertical wind shear conditions."
1821091900 103N 115W  15
1821091906 100N 131W  15
1821091912  98N 147W  15
1821091918  96N 163W  15
1821092000  95N 178W  20
1821092006  95N 193W  25
1821092012  93N 210W  25
1821092018  94N 228W  25
1821092100  95N 247W  25
1821092106  95N 261W  25
1821092112  95N 273W  25
1821092118  95N 285W  25
1821092200  96N 296W  25
1821092206  96N 307W  25
1821092212  98N 319W  30
1821092218 100N 331W  30
1821092300 102N 344W  30
1821092306 105N 360W  35
1821092312 107N 376W  45
1821092318 109N 391W  50
1821092318 109N 391W  50
1821092400 111N 403W  60
1821092406 114N 416W  65
1821092412 116N 431W  65
1821092418 119N 443W  70
1821092500 123N 454W  85
1821092506 127N 463W  95
1821092512 128N 472W 105
1821092518 131N 481W 115
1821092600 134N 487W 125
1821092606 137N 494W 125
1821092612 138N 500W 130
1821092618 140N 503W 135
1821092700 145N 506W 130
1821092706 150N 511W 115
1821092712 154N 517W 105
1821092718 159N 523W 105
1821092800 165N 529W 105
1821092806 170N 536W 115
1821092812 173N 541W 115
1821092818 177N 547W 115
1821092900 181N 553W 115
1821092906 186N 559W 115
1821092912 191N 566W 115
1821092918 197N 573W 115
1821093000 203N 580W 125
1821093006 210N 588W 125

HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

HU 18L(SAM). 30/0132UTC.
HU 18L(SAM). 30/0132UTC.

NORTH ATLANTIC: TS 20L(VICTOR). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 30/09UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65KNOTS BY 01/18UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65KNOTS BY 01/18UTC.
2021092700  64N 104W  15
2021092706  64N 120W  15
2021092712  65N 136W  20
2021092718  66N 152W  20
2021092800  67N 168W  20
2021092806  67N 181W  25
2021092812  67N 197W  25
2021092818  68N 210W  25
2021092900  70N 220W  30
2021092906  75N 234W  30
2021092912  80N 241W  30
2021092918  81N 251W  35
2021093000  83N 260W  35
2021093006  85N 268W  40
 

TS 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TS 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

30/1015UTC.
30/1015UTC.

30/1015UTC.
30/1015UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, September 30th 2021 à 14:56
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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