WARNING 7/JTWC
Météo974
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Location: 32.1°N 135.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM
JAPAN. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
261241Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 07W HAS TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED IN THE PRESENCE
OF ONGOING ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS). PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER (28-29C) AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT HAVE PREVENTED THE SYSTEM FROM WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE NEGATIVE INFLUENCES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
B. TS 07W WILL TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT PROGRESSES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HONSHU WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THE
SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND STEADY DISSIPATION
OVER LAND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Location: 32.1°N 135.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM
JAPAN. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
261241Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 07W HAS TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED IN THE PRESENCE
OF ONGOING ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS). PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER (28-29C) AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT HAVE PREVENTED THE SYSTEM FROM WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE NEGATIVE INFLUENCES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
B. TS 07W WILL TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT PROGRESSES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HONSHU WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THE
SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND STEADY DISSIPATION
OVER LAND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
26/1241UTC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
