Météo974
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS KROSA(11W)
Location: 32.4°N 132.7°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt (130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
WDPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR
038//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS RAGGED CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 150000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY A 52 KNOT OBSERVATION AT CAPE MUROTO (90 NM NORTHEAST OF
THE STORM CENTER). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALSO REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TS 11W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. LAND INTERACTION AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW TS 11W TO DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS IN INTENSITY AT TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12 AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP
TO ACCELERATE TS 11W TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. BY TAU 24, TS 11W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 11W
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS KROSA(11W)
Location: 32.4°N 132.7°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt (130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
WDPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR
038//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS RAGGED CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 150000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY A 52 KNOT OBSERVATION AT CAPE MUROTO (90 NM NORTHEAST OF
THE STORM CENTER). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALSO REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TS 11W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. LAND INTERACTION AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW TS 11W TO DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS IN INTENSITY AT TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12 AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP
TO ACCELERATE TS 11W TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. BY TAU 24, TS 11W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 11W
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
15/0315UTC
15/00UTC
14/2355UTC. STRONG WINDS STILL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
