Météo974
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS BAILU(12W)
Location: 16.4°N 128.6°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
INTENSIFYING
WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 220600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL BANDING, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM PGTW BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND THE PREVIOUS
212214Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TS 12W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 12W ALSO HAS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
MODERATE, BUT DEVELOPING, POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29
AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TS 12W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 12W TO REACH 65
KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD WHICH WILL
KEEP TS 12W ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TS 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN TAIWAN BEFORE TAU 48 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AND WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY THIS TIME, LAND INTERACTION
WITH CHINA WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. TS 12W WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT DECREASES IN INTENSITY TO 20 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 370 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 96 AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS BAILU(12W)
Location: 16.4°N 128.6°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
INTENSIFYING
WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 220600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL BANDING, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM PGTW BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND THE PREVIOUS
212214Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TS 12W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 12W ALSO HAS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
MODERATE, BUT DEVELOPING, POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29
AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TS 12W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 12W TO REACH 65
KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD WHICH WILL
KEEP TS 12W ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TS 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN TAIWAN BEFORE TAU 48 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AND WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY THIS TIME, LAND INTERACTION
WITH CHINA WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. TS 12W WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT DECREASES IN INTENSITY TO 20 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 370 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 96 AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
22/06UTC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
