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TS 24W(KOMAPSU) and TS 23W(NAMTHEUN) both intensifying gradually//Eastern North Pacific:TD 16E set to intensify markedly next 48h,10/16utc




WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 23W(NAMTHEUN). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 10/15UTC

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS NAMTHEUN WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO 48H. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, CREST THE STR AXIS NEAR 72H, THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 72H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KNOTS BY 120H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS NAMTHEUN WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO 48H. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, CREST THE STR AXIS NEAR 72H, THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 72H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KNOTS BY 120H.
2321100718 142N1671E  15
2321100800 145N1664E  15
2321100806 148N1658E  15
2321100812 151N1651E  15
2321100818 154N1643E  15
2321100900 160N1637E  20
2321100906 164N1628E  20
2321100912 166N1620E  20
2321100918 168N1615E  20
2321101000 170N1603E  30
2321101006 172N1599E  35
2321101012 174N1595E  40
NNNN

TS 24W(KOMAPSU) and TS 23W(NAMTHEUN) both intensifying gradually//Eastern North Pacific:TD 16E set to intensify markedly next 48h,10/16utc


SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED AND DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A WIDE SWATH OF FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 101101Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF 39KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND WARM SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED AND DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A WIDE SWATH OF FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 101101Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF 39KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND WARM SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WIDEST SPREAD OF 610+ KM AT 72H. EEMN IS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK UP TO 72H AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 120H.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WIDEST SPREAD OF 610+ KM AT 72H. EEMN IS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK UP TO 72H AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 120H.


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: TS 24W(KOMPASU). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 10/15UTC

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE(STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN DUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), ACROSS HAINAN AND THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND 96H. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 IN THE SCS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KNOTS AT 72H AS IT TRACKS OVER HAINAN. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 20KNOTS AFTER IT CROSSES INTO CAMBODIA.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE(STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN DUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), ACROSS HAINAN AND THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND 96H. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 IN THE SCS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KNOTS AT 72H AS IT TRACKS OVER HAINAN. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 20KNOTS AFTER IT CROSSES INTO CAMBODIA.
2421100718 156N1379E  15
2421100800 161N1368E  20
2421100806 167N1358E  20
2421100812 171N1348E  20
2421100818 172N1335E  30
2421100900 163N1315E  30
2421100906 157N1303E  25
2421100912 151N1295E  25
2421100918 154N1288E  25
2421101000 167N1284E  25
2421101006 175N1279E  35
2421101012 184N1266E  45
NNNN
 

TS 24W(KOMAPSU) and TS 23W(NAMTHEUN) both intensifying gradually//Eastern North Pacific:TD 16E set to intensify markedly next 48h,10/16utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH WIDE FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THAT ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS IS BASED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES INDICATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH WIDE FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THAT ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS IS BASED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES INDICATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LARGE LLC, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 120H. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 120H.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LARGE LLC, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 120H. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 120H.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/SOUTH CHINA SEA: TD 22W(LIONROCK). WARNING 13/FINAL ISSUED AT 10/09UTC

TS 24W(KOMAPSU) and TS 23W(NAMTHEUN) both intensifying gradually//Eastern North Pacific:TD 16E set to intensify markedly next 48h,10/16utc
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 40 KNOTS.
2221100200  64N1338E  15
2221100206  66N1328E  15
2221100212  68N1318E  20
2221100218  72N1307E  20
2221100300  76N1295E  20
2221100306  79N1284E  20
2221100312  86N1271E  20
2221100318  94N1260E  20
2221100400  97N1248E  20
2221100406  97N1229E  20
2221100412  98N1214E  20
2221100418 109N1200E  20
2221100500 118N1192E  20
2221100506 123N1181E  20
2221100512 130N1165E  20
2221100518 139N1154E  20
2221100600 148N1145E  20
2221100606 154N1135E  20
2221100612 158N1129E  20
2221100618 161N1123E  20
2221100700 163N1119E  25
2221100706 166N1115E  30
2221100712 169N1113E  30
2221100718 174N1112E  30
2221100800 180N1111E  35
2221100806 185N1107E  35
2221100812 192N1105E  40
2221100818 195N1102E  35
2221100900 198N1098E  35
2221100906 200N1094E  35
2221100912 201N1091E  35
2221100918 202N1087E  35
2221101000 205N1074E  35
2221101006 208N1066E  25
NNNN

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TD 16E. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 10/16UTC

TS 24W(KOMAPSU) and TS 23W(NAMTHEUN) both intensifying gradually//Eastern North Pacific:TD 16E set to intensify markedly next 48h,10/16utc
1621100712  95N 844W  15
1621100718  95N 859W  15
1621100800  95N 874W  15
1621100806  96N 891W  15
1621100812  98N 907W  20
1621100818 101N 923W  25
1621100900 105N 939W  25
1621100906 109N 953W  25
1621100912 113N 964W  25
1621100918 125N 987W  25
1621101000 133N1007W  25
1621101006 140N1023W  30
1621101012 146N1041W  30
NNNN

TD 16E. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TD 16E. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

10/1530UTC.
10/1530UTC.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, October 10th 2021 à 18:54
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