TC 22S(HALIMA): forecast to fall below 35kts after 24h//TD 01W: made landfall //Invest 96S and Invest 94W, 31/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S(HALIMA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 22S AND TD 01W.

31/0230UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 22S IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE RIDGING BLOCKING THE SYSTEM TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLES AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS NO CLEAR DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE CURRENTLY, THEREFORE TC 22S WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN AN ERRATIC MOTION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH IN AND CREATE A BLOCK, PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24H UNTIL THE STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDS IN TURNING THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK, IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER AIR REGION IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. TC HALIMA WILL CONTINUALLY WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL EXHAUST THE REST OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE SYSTEM BY 36H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 310027Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE EYE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMAGERY. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERALLY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, NEARING THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT 24H. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DIRECTION OF THE TURN. AFUM, ECMF, AND THE ECMF ENSEMBLE TURN THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, WHILE GFS, NVGM, AND UKMET TURN IT EQUATORWARD. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THROUGH 24H. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST WITH ONLY A 110KM DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL SPREAD. DUE TO THIS SMALL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 680 KM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BROAD ISOLATED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SIMILAR TRACK WITH 96S MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH GFS, CMC, AND ECMWF GLOBAL FIELDS DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE COAST NEAR LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.