TC 16P(KEVIN) CAT 1 US intensifying tracking near Port Vila //TC 15P(JUDY) becoming subtropical by 24h//Rmnts TC 11S(FREDDY)//0221utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 15P(JUDY) AND TC 16P(KEVIN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CD0), WHICH IS FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021402Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ORBITING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC PARTIALLY REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES BENEATH. BASED ON THE FULLY OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN EIR THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 65-77KTS WHICH MATCHES A 021400Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE RADIOMETER PASS.

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FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING RECENTLY ACHIEVED TYPHOON STRENGTH, TC 16P (KEVIN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 16P THROUGH TAU 24-TAU 36 UNTIL REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 95 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48 DOWN TO 85KTS. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC 16P WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 96, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WILL ALL MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, NAVGEM TAKES A SHARP POLEWARD TURN WHILE THE REAMING GUIDANCE CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND GFS TAKING AN UNREALISTIC WEAKENING TREND AND THEN STAGNATION WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS THROUGH TAU 24 AND FOLLOWING TAU 36, ALL MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT REACH THE CORAL SEA, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021542Z SSMIS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE WESTERN PORTION OF 15P HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SINGULAR VERTICAL HOT TOWER IS EAST OF THE LLCC AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES LIKE CIMSS SATCON WHICH ALL INDICATE 77-90KTS WHILE ESTIMATES LIKE CIMSS ADT REMAIN LOWER.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P (JUDY) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 24. ALREADY POLEWARD OF THE 26C ISOTHERM, THE INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). BY TAU 36, 15P WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 11S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 382E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 38.0E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 022233Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 021930Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF 11S CURRENTLY SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.