TC 14S(VERNON) intensifying a bit//TC 15S(ANIKA) to landfall within 12h//Invest 95S:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert//Invest 94P:Medium,02/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 15S(ANIKA) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 14S(VERNON). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 14S, TC 15S , INVEST 94P AND INVEST 95S.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 48H. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TC 14S STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY ABOVE 55 KTS DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AROUND 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26C) AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 72, TC 14S SHOULD TRANSITION A SHALLOW WARM CORE, SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT, SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL FEATURES CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED IN A 012314Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, OF WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ADT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY AN 150KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 72H. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50-55 KTS AROUND 24H FOLLOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION INTO COOLER WATERS. THIS LENDS TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND FORECAST INTENSITY.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS NEAR 12H AS IT CONTINUES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 12H AND PROCEED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND THROUGH 24H CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS OF AUSTRALIA, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEAR 36H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH BANDING FEATURES IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 012203Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND COMPOSES THE PRIMARY STRUCTURE OF TC 15S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A HEDGE BETWEEN AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND ADT CURRENT INTENSITY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH AN 35KM SPREAD AT 36H. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING A PEAK IN INTENSITY AT 12H FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 570 KM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. A 011430Z PARTIAL ASCAT C PASS REVEALS 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C); OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 167.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 100KM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010256Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT COMPLICATED LOW LEVEL FEATURES WITH AN EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA, AND A LLCC JUST EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA OBSCURED BENEATH THE MORE FORMATIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION INCLUDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24- 48HRS WITH BOTH LLCCS EXPECTED TO MERGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE IDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24- 48HRS WITH BOTH LLCCS EXPECTED TO MERGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE IDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM.