JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 13S(EMNATI).
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22/0230UTC.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 13S(EMNATI). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 21/21UTC. 22/0230UTC CENTER POSITION MARKED ON THE MAP. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DOWN THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION MAKING LANDFALL JUST WITHIN 24H. THIS LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A DECREASE TO 55 KTS IN INTENSITY BY 48H. SHORTLY AFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26C) WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR REINTENSIFICATION. BY 72H, TC 13S WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED BY 96H AT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS.
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 194S 513E 90
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 194S 513E 90
22/00UTC LOCATION AND INTENSITY. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INDICATES TC 13S IS STILL UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF AN INNER EYEWALL WITH A 19KM WIDE EYE AND AN ILL-DEFINED OUTER EYEWALL. AN 211804Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 40 KT WINDS IN THE OUTER WIND FIELD NOW OVER THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR TOAMASINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE OBSERVED IN EIR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY(AT 21/18Z) OF 95 KTS/CAT 2 US IS AVERAGED BETWEEN AGENCY CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ADT BASED ON PROBABLE WEAKENING DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. SINCE TC 13S IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LAND INTERACTION, INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE CONSTRICTION OF THE OUTER EYEWALL IS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
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22/0445UTC.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INDICATES TC 13S IS STILL UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
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MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY A 165KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 72H, EXCLUDING NVGM AS AN OUTLIER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS EITHER MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BEFORE LANDFALL. NO MODELS INDICATE REINTENSIFICATION ONCE BACK OVER WATER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
HWRF AT 21/18UTC: 96 KNOTS AT +18H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
HWRF AT 21/18UTC: 91 KNOTS AT +30H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
21/18UTC: ECMWF ENSEMBLE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
