TC 11S(FREDDY) making landfall at CAT 1 US South of Vilankulos//TC 14S(ENALA) peaked at CAT 1//Invest 94P//Invest 95S//2403utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 11S(FREDDY) AND TC 14S(ENALA).

AFTER TRAVELING OVER 5500 MILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, TC 11S (FREDDY) IS FINALLY ENTERING THE TWILIGHT OF ITS LIFE CYCLE AND WILL SHORTLY MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. BUT TC FREDDY IS NOT YET READY TO GIVE UP THE GHOST COMPLETELY, AND HAS STEADILY, BUT RATHER SLOWLY, INTENSIFIED ONCE MORE AFTER MOVING INTO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED DIRECTLY OVER EUROPA ISLAND, WHICH RECORDED A SIX HOUR PLUS PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 50-60 KNOT WINDS AS A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHRIMP-SHAPED STRUCTURE, WITH A SMALL CORE OF CONVECTION BUBBLING NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER, AND A BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING UP TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A CONFLUENCE OF AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND NEAR A WARM SPOT IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ABOVE THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0. A 222210Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED ESTIMATE SHOWED MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A POOL OF WARM (29-30C) WATERS LYING DIRECTLY ON THE COAST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK DUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12, ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE NEAR INHAMBANE. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CONTINUES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND DRIFTING SLOWLY FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN AFRICA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH LOW VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. PASSAGE OVER THE WARM POOL OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATERS SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE, SHOULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF ENERGY JUST BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE COAST AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH 65 TO 70 KNOTS AS IT IS MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE NAVGEM, WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIDGE INITIALLY, THEN TURNS IT BACK TO THE EAST, PERFORMS TWO LOOPS AND THEN STEADIES UP ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48. ALL THAT BEING SAID, IT IS CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND TO TAU 24, THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWARD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH PEAKED AT OR JUST PRIOR TO 1800Z AND IS NOW ALREADY WEAKENING. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AROUND 231308Z SHOWED A VERY CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, AND LATE VISIBLE IMAGERY PRIOR TO SUNSET SHOWED INDICATIONS OF A NASCENT EYE FEATURE, WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) SEEN IN THE EIR HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED IN JUST THE PAST HOUR AS WELL. DUE TO THE STEADILY DETERIORATING CDO, THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND A LACK OF RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY, MEANS THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT AN AGGRESSIVE 75 KNOTS, WHICH WHILE ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AGENCY FIXES, IS SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW FIX, THE ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES AS WELL AS A 231630Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS IN THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. APPLYING THE 10-15 KNOT LOW-BIAS CORRECTION FOR ASCAT WINDS AT THIS SPEED EASILY SUPPORTS A 75 KNOT INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VWS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST TRACK HAS SLOWED TO QUASI-STATIONARY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY TREND HAS SHIFTED TO INTENSIFICATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S (ENALA) HAS UNDERGONE A SHORT BURST OF VERY QUICK INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WERE NOT OPTIMUM FOR THIS BURST OF ACTIVITY, THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR A RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF AN INNER CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH WAS ABLE TO PUSH BACK AGAINST THE MODERATE SHEAR. HOWEVER, EVEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AN UPTICK IN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, HAS LED TO DETERIORATION IN THE SYSTEMS SUBSEQUENT TO THE PEAK WHICH OCCURRED AT OR JUST PRIOR TO 231800Z. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, MOVING INTO A WEAK STEERING PATTERN CREATED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, LEADING TO A SLOW, MEANDERING TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS AND CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE CONTINUING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FUELED BY STEADY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VWS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE STRONG, DIVERGENT, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL SLOW THE PACE OF WEAKENING, BUT NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OR MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, IT DRIFTS OVER A SLIGHTLY WARMER POOL OF WATER AND SIMULTANEOUSLY VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOME RADIAL DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO REINTENSIFICATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, WITH JUST 100NM SPREAD BY TAU 72. THINGS GO OFF THE RAILS AFTER TAU 72, WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHIFTING TO MORE A SQUASHED SPIDER LOOK, WITH EACH CONSENSUS TRACKER SHOWING A DIFFERENT VECTOR TO THE TAU 120 POSITION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER TAU 72 WITH SOLUTIONS SPREAD ACROSS MORE THAN 600NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TRACKS THE CONSENSUS MEAN, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER TAU 48. HOWEVER, IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE, WITH HWRF PREDICTING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 120, WHILE DECAY-SHIPS INDICATES 25 KNOTS AT THE SAME TIME. THE COAMPS-TC DETERMINISTIC ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72, WHILE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE SHOWS A STRONG PROBABILITY (70 PERCENT) OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THIS STORM, AND THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATER TAUS, HENCE THE JTWC FORECAST HAS YET TO BITE ON THAT BAIT, AND WHILE INDICATES SOME INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 96, REMAINS BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S 175.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE A SPINNER ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH BROADER AREA OF TROUGHING AS INDICATED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN A MARGINAL AREA FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (35-40 KTS) EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A GOOD 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, VERY WARM (29-30) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALTHOUGH INVEST 94P IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE, NAVGEM, ICON, AND GFS DETERMINISTIC ALONG WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE HEADING WESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.