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TC 10S(SEAN) 2nd Major Cyclone in a row after TC 07S(DIKELEDI) for the South Indian Ocean//2009utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 10S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 10S.


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 10S(SEAN). 10/06UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 110 KNOTS/CAT 3 US: + 55 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS.

TC 10S(SEAN) 2nd Major Cyclone in a row after TC 07S(DIKELEDI) for the South Indian Ocean//2009utc
1025011700 170S1185E  20
1025011706 174S1199E  20
1025011712 185S1205E  20
1025011718 192S1199E  30
1025011800 193S1191E  35
1025011806 193S1181E  35
1025011812 190S1178E  45
1025011818 192S1173E  45
1025011900 194S1163E  50
1025011906 196S1152E  55
1025011912 202S1144E  70
1025011918 204S1134E  80
1025012000 210S1123E  90
1025012006 216S1117E 110
 

WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 10/09UTC

TC 10S(SEAN) 2nd Major Cyclone in a row after TC 07S(DIKELEDI) for the South Indian Ocean//2009utc

CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY A MORE COMPACT COLD CENTRAL COVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED A SECONDARY EYEWALL AROUND ITS 10-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE ABOM LEARMONTH RADAR SITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY COOLING SST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY A MORE COMPACT COLD CENTRAL COVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED A SECONDARY EYEWALL AROUND ITS 10-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE ABOM LEARMONTH RADAR SITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY COOLING SST.
10s_200600sair.jpg 10S_200600sair.jpg  (657.57 KB)

85 – 92 GHz Brightness Temperature


TC Warning Graphic

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC SEAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL AT BEST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL EROSION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. THIS, PLUS THE CONTINUED COOLING SST, INCREASING VWS AND, EVENTUALLY, DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC SEAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL AT BEST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL EROSION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. THIS, PLUS THE CONTINUED COOLING SST, INCREASING VWS AND, EVENTUALLY, DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

 

Model Diagnostic Plot

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PACK AT AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 90NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT WIDER AND MORE UNEVENLY TO OVER 500NM WITH UEMN THE EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET UEMN. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID RAPID WEAKENING THAT USUALLY FOLLOWS AFTER RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PACK AT AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 90NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT WIDER AND MORE UNEVENLY TO OVER 500NM WITH UEMN THE EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET UEMN. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID RAPID WEAKENING THAT USUALLY FOLLOWS AFTER RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
2025sh10_hfsaspmw_202501200000_f006.png 2025sh10_hfsaspmw_202501200000_f006.png  (531.67 KB)
2025sh10_hwrfdiag_202501200600.png 2025sh10_hwrfdiag_202501200600.png  (225.36 KB)

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)


Platform: RCM-1 Acquisition Date: 2025-01-19 22:05:42 UTC Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 86.51

Platform: RCM-1 Acquisition Date: 2025-01-19 22:05:42 UTC Storm Name: SH102025 / SEAN Storm ID: SH10 Storm Center Longitude: 112.650 Storm Center Latitude: -20.728 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 30.098 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 77.43 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 83.70 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 86.51 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 81.99 RMax (nmi): 6.00 - 9.00
Platform: RCM-1 Acquisition Date: 2025-01-19 22:05:42 UTC Storm Name: SH102025 / SEAN Storm ID: SH10 Storm Center Longitude: 112.650 Storm Center Latitude: -20.728 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 30.098 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 77.43 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 83.70 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 86.51 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 81.99 RMax (nmi): 6.00 - 9.00

Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)


VIIRS EDR Infrared (IR) 750m 10.763μm Time of Latest Image: 2025-01-20 06:35


20/0830UTC DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS

TC 10S(SEAN) 2nd Major Cyclone in a row after TC 07S(DIKELEDI) for the South Indian Ocean//2009utc
TPXS10 PGTW 200903

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (SEAN)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 22.00S

D. 111.22E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0. MET
YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   20/0614Z  21.68S  111.53E  AMS2


   RAE



SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: MUCH-TRAVELLED TC 07S(DIKELEDI). THE CYCLONE REACHED CAT 3 US SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR CLOSE TO 30°SOUTH IN LATITUDE. NO OTHER CYCLONE REACHED SUCH AN INTENSITY SO FAR SOUTH IN THAT REGION.

TC 10S(SEAN) 2nd Major Cyclone in a row after TC 07S(DIKELEDI) for the South Indian Ocean//2009utc
0724122912 124S1132E  15
0724122918 126S1123E  20
0724123000 127S1115E  20
0724123006 129S1106E  20
0724123012 125S1100E  20
0724123018 124S1096E  20
0724123100 123S1092E  25
0724123106 126S1091E  25
0724123112 131S1090E  25
0724123118 140S1084E  25
0725010100 142S1071E  25
0725010106 145S1063E  25
0725010112 145S1054E  25
0725010118 145S1044E  25
0725010200 145S1035E  25
0725010206 145S1027E  25
0725010212 145S1015E  25
0725010218 148S1008E  20
0725010300 150S1000E  25
0725010306 153S 990E  25
0725010312 154S 973E  25
0725010318 153S 955E  25
0725010400 152S 943E  25
0725010406 150S 936E  25
0725010412 149S 927E  25
0725010418 147S 911E  25
0725010500 151S 896E  25
0725010506 154S 880E  25
0725010512 150S 867E  20
0725010518 147S 855E  20
0725010600 142S 840E  20
0725010606 138S 824E  20
0725010612 133S 809E  20
0725010618 128S 793E  20
0725010700 135S 787E  20
0725010706 144S 792E  20
0725010712 146S 774E  25
0725010718 148S 756E  30
0725010800 146S 743E  30
0725010806 148S 722E  30
0725010812 149S 702E  30
0725010818 150S 682E  30
0725010900 149S 658E  30
0725010906 144S 634E  30
0725010912 136S 616E  35
0725010918 136S 601E  40
0725011000 136S 586E  45
0725011006 136S 571E  55
0725011012 135S 556E  55
0725011018 133S 541E  60
0725011100 130S 529E  75
0725011106 126S 517E  80
0725011112 126S 503E  80
0725011115 127S 501E  90
0725011118 129S 490E  75
0725011200 131S 475E  70
0725011206 134S 462E  65
0725011212 140S 448E  60
0725011218 143S 435E  70
0725011300 145S 426E  70
0725011306 149S 411E  80
0725011312 152S 406E  90
0725011318 155S 402E  70
0725011400 162S 399E  60
0725011406 169S 398E  55
0725011412 178S 397E  55
0725011418 191S 401E  60
0725011500 203S 405E  60
0725011506 217S 410E  70
0725011512 239S 417E  75
0725011518 257S 423E  90
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011612 306S 469E  90
0725011618 322S 490E  75
0725011700 329S 520E  65
0725011706 337S 548E  50
0725011706 337S 548E  50
0725011712 342S 580E  45
0725011718 350S 619E  45


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, January 20th 2025 à 15:24
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