JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI).
29/1345UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(BATSIRAI). WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 29/15UTC.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR INFLUENCE. AFTER 24H, A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ASSUME STEERING, AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UP TO 48H; AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL RETURN TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 105KTS/CAT 3 US BY 120H, AS IT PASSES NORTH OF LA REUNION.
SH, 08, 2022012318, , BEST, 0, 83S, 883E, 20, 1006, DB
SH, 08, 2022012400, , BEST, 0, 88S, 890E, 20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012406, , BEST, 0, 93S, 896E, 20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012412, , BEST, 0, 98S, 898E, 20, 1004, DB
SH, 08, 2022012418, , BEST, 0, 103S, 901E, 25, 1002, TD
SH, 08, 2022012500, , BEST, 0, 110S, 904E, 25, 1002, TD
SH, 08, 2022012506, , BEST, 0, 115S, 907E, 20, 1003, DB
SH, 08, 2022012512, , BEST, 0, 122S, 909E, 20, 1003, DB
SH, 08, 2022012518, , BEST, 0, 132S, 906E, 20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012600, , BEST, 0, 142S, 896E, 25, 1005, TD
SH, 08, 2022012606, , BEST, 0, 144S, 881E, 30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012612, , BEST, 0, 150S, 866E, 30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012618, , BEST, 0, 157S, 852E, 30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012700, , BEST, 0, 164S, 837E, 35, 1001, TS
SH, 08, 2022012706, , BEST, 0, 169S, 819E, 45, 997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012712, , BEST, 0, 180S, 796E, 90, 970, TY
SH, 08, 2022012718, , BEST, 0, 185S, 777E, 65, 987, TY
SH, 08, 2022012800, , BEST, 0, 184S, 761E, 50, 995, TS
SH, 08, 2022012806, , BEST, 0, 183S, 747E, 45, 997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012812, , BEST, 0, 183S, 734E, 45, 997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012818, , BEST, 0, 183S, 724E, 50, 996, TS
SH, 08, 2022012900, , BEST, 0, 182S, 712E, 55, 992, TS
SH, 08, 2022012906, , BEST, 0, 181S, 707E, 65, 988, TY
SH, 08, 2022012912, , BEST, 0, 180S, 699E, 70, 985, TY
SH, 08, 2022012400, , BEST, 0, 88S, 890E, 20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012406, , BEST, 0, 93S, 896E, 20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012412, , BEST, 0, 98S, 898E, 20, 1004, DB
SH, 08, 2022012418, , BEST, 0, 103S, 901E, 25, 1002, TD
SH, 08, 2022012500, , BEST, 0, 110S, 904E, 25, 1002, TD
SH, 08, 2022012506, , BEST, 0, 115S, 907E, 20, 1003, DB
SH, 08, 2022012512, , BEST, 0, 122S, 909E, 20, 1003, DB
SH, 08, 2022012518, , BEST, 0, 132S, 906E, 20, 1005, DB
SH, 08, 2022012600, , BEST, 0, 142S, 896E, 25, 1005, TD
SH, 08, 2022012606, , BEST, 0, 144S, 881E, 30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012612, , BEST, 0, 150S, 866E, 30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012618, , BEST, 0, 157S, 852E, 30, 1000, TD
SH, 08, 2022012700, , BEST, 0, 164S, 837E, 35, 1001, TS
SH, 08, 2022012706, , BEST, 0, 169S, 819E, 45, 997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012712, , BEST, 0, 180S, 796E, 90, 970, TY
SH, 08, 2022012718, , BEST, 0, 185S, 777E, 65, 987, TY
SH, 08, 2022012800, , BEST, 0, 184S, 761E, 50, 995, TS
SH, 08, 2022012806, , BEST, 0, 183S, 747E, 45, 997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012812, , BEST, 0, 183S, 734E, 45, 997, TS
SH, 08, 2022012818, , BEST, 0, 183S, 724E, 50, 996, TS
SH, 08, 2022012900, , BEST, 0, 182S, 712E, 55, 992, TS
SH, 08, 2022012906, , BEST, 0, 181S, 707E, 65, 988, TY
SH, 08, 2022012912, , BEST, 0, 180S, 699E, 70, 985, TY
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE FEEDER BAND WRAP AND THE APPEARANCE OF A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE AMSR2 PASS AT 290838Z, THE HALFWAY POINT FROM THE LAST BEST TRACK POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS/CAT 1 US IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
DMSP AT 29/1145UTC DEPICTED A CLEAR-CUT CENTER.
MICROWAVE AT 29/0838UTC DEPICTED A SMALL AND INTENSE CORE AND AN INCIPIENT MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME TO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM THE NOTABLE OUTLIER ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.
HWRF AT 29/06UTC. 107KNOTS AT +72H.
29/06UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
29/1115UTC.
29/1331UTC. SMAP. 10MINUTES WINDS AT 35M/S= 126KM/H. YIELDS 143KM/H WINDS OVER 1MINUTE OR 77KNOTS.
