TC 08S(BATSIRAI) high end CAT 1 US will be intensifying next 72h up to CAT 3, approaching the Mascarenes, Invests 98P/97P updates,30/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED ON INVEST 98P.

30/02UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER 24H, THE TRACK WILL BEGIN A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. AROUND 120H, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN PUSH 08S IN A SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 100 KTS/CAT 3 US BY 72H. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY AROUND 90-100 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT STRUCTURE WITH A CLOUD DENSE OVERCAST BUT IS NOW DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE AMSR2 PASS AT 292109Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80KTS/CAT 1 US IS BASED ON THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE WIND SPEED PRODUCT FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AMSR2 IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A MAX WIND OF 74 KTS THREE HOURS PRIOR TO SYNOPTIC TIME.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK WITH NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH, BUT STILL SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DIRECTION WESTWARD AS THE REST OF THE MODELS. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO, THERE REMAINS A MODEST CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 280 KM AT 72H. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EC INDICATING AN INTENSITY AROUND 80-85 UP TO 72H FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT JUMP TO 90-95 KTS AFTERWARDS. HWRF IS INDICATING SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT JUMPS TO 110 KTS AT 96H. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODELS POSSIBLY UNDERESTIMATING INTENSITY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE STORM.