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TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 2 US ,microwave eye well depicted again, forecast track up-date//Invest 98P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert,31/15utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 98P.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 98P.
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

31/1430UTC.
31/1430UTC.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(BATSIRAI). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 31/15UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL COMMENCE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS WEAKENED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER THE TROUGH RECEDES AFTER 48H, THE STR WILL SLIGHTLY REBUILD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD CENTRAL MADAGSCAR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS/CAT 3 US BY 96H. AFTERWARD, VWS INCREASE AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACH INTO MADAGASCAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS/CAT 2 BY 120H PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL COMMENCE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS WEAKENED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER THE TROUGH RECEDES AFTER 48H, THE STR WILL SLIGHTLY REBUILD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD CENTRAL MADAGSCAR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS/CAT 3 US BY 96H. AFTERWARD, VWS INCREASE AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACH INTO MADAGASCAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS/CAT 2 BY 120H PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
0822012318  83S 883E  20
0822012400  88S 890E  20
0822012406  93S 896E  20
0822012412  98S 898E  20
0822012418 103S 901E  25
0822012500 110S 904E  25
0822012506 115S 907E  20
0822012512 122S 909E  20
0822012518 132S 906E  20
0822012600 142S 896E  25
0822012606 144S 881E  30
0822012612 150S 866E  30
0822012618 157S 852E  30
0822012700 164S 837E  35
0822012706 169S 819E  45
0822012712 180S 796E  90
0822012718 185S 777E  65
0822012800 184S 761E  50
0822012806 183S 747E  45
0822012812 183S 734E  45
0822012818 183S 724E  50
0822012900 182S 716E  55
0822012900 182S 716E  55
0822012906 181S 707E  65
0822012912 180S 699E  70
0822012918 178S 691E  80
0822013000 175S 681E  95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E  95
0822013106 159S 638E  90
0822013112 157S 632E  85


TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 2 US ,microwave eye well depicted again, forecast track up-date//Invest 98P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert,31/15utc

CIMSS ANALYSIS: FAVOURBALE ENVIRONMENT AFTER 12H.


CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRICAL AS FEEDER BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. A RAGGED 19-KM PINHOLE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME CLOUD- FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE (CLOUD-FILLED EYE). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS/CAT 2 US IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE DECLINE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRICAL AS FEEDER BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. A RAGGED 19-KM PINHOLE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME CLOUD- FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE (CLOUD-FILLED EYE). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS/CAT 2 US IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE DECLINE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MICROWAVE EYE DEPICTED WITH INTENSE CORE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. 31/1400UTC.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 280KM AT 120H, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H; AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 280KM AT 120H, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H; AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION.

HWRF AT 31/06UTC: 110KNOTS AT +48H.


31/06UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/CORAL SEA: INVEST 98P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 31/11UTC.

TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 2 US ,microwave eye well depicted again, forecast track up-date//Invest 98P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert,31/15utc
9822012918 141S1474E  15
9822013000 140S1479E  15
9822013006 139S1484E  20
9822013012 139S1491E  25
9822013018 141S1499E  25
9822013100 141S1505E  25
9822013106 143S1513E  30
9822013112 147S1519E  30



SOUTHERN HEMISPEHRE/WESTERN AUSTRALIA. INVEST 99S. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVER THE JTWC MAP AT THE MOMENT. KEEPING TABS ON IT.

TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 2 US ,microwave eye well depicted again, forecast track up-date//Invest 98P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert,31/15utc
SH, 99, 2022012918,   , BEST,   0, 182S, 1295E,  15,  998
SH, 99, 2022013000,   , BEST,   0, 186S, 1292E,  15,  997
SH, 99, 2022013006,   , BEST,   0, 189S, 1289E,  15,  997
SH, 99, 2022013012,   , BEST,   0, 191S, 1287E,  15,  996
SH, 99, 2022013018,   , BEST,   0, 192S, 1285E,  15,  992
SH, 99, 2022013100,   , BEST,   0, 193S, 1273E,  15,  992
SH, 99, 2022013106,   , BEST,   0, 189S, 1261E,  15,  992
SH, 99, 2022013112,   , BEST,   0, 189S, 1252E,  15, 1010

TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 2 US ,microwave eye well depicted again, forecast track up-date//Invest 98P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert,31/15utc

 

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, January 31st 2022 à 20:36
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