TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 2 US , peak intensity forecast by 72h// Invest 98P and Invest 99S updates, 31/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 08S AND INVEST 98P.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD COMPONENT TO STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 96H, AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BUT PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT THE WEAKENING TREND. BY 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REINTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSING CONVECTION REMAINING INTACT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DESPITE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A DIMPLE FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN SEVERAL IMAGES, BUT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET REDEVELOPED A BONA-FIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 302320Z SSMIS PASS SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS/CAT 2 US IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSERVATIVELY PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECENT AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ANALYSES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. AFTER 72H, THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LANDFALL IN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR, AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MAJOR GROUPING TO THE SOUTH WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AS WELL, BUT THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CHANGING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.