TC 07S is intensifying over the MOZ Channel while approaching Mozambique coastline// Invest 96S on the map, 23/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 07S.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. TC 07S WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT 12H DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY HIGHER (50 KNOTS) BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR 18H. AFTER 18H, TC 07S WILL TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S HAS RE-EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS AND IS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231054Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.

231054Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES (EPS AND GEFS) ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS FROM 12 TO 18H WITH STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6S 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 910KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231226Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC. A 230349Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING WITH 15-20KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 96S WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 96S WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.