TC 07S(ANA) made landfall near Angoche/MOZ// Invest 91W and Invest 96S updates, 24/15utc

24/1345UTC.

REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 38.1E. 24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 KM SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 30 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 240800Z NEAR ANGOCHE, MOZAMBIQUE. SURFACE WINDS AT ANGOCHE SWITCHED FROM SOUTHERLY AT 20 KNOTS AT 240800Z TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 22 KM/H AT 240900Z AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED INLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241137Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KNOTS. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND WILL DISSIPATE BY 24H. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240410Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.