02UTC: IMMINENT LANDFALL OF THE EYE NEAR PURI
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https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.zinfos974.com/Le-Super-Cyclone-FANI-01B-frappe-la-ville-de-Puri-en-Inde_a140039.html
SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS JUST BELOW
Location: 19.0°N 85.5°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 923 mb
CATEGORY 4 US
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC FANI HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED FROM ITS
PEAK ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO, WITH THE WELL-DEFINED EYE BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW
FIX LOCATION, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF INDIAN RADAR DATA DEPICTING
THE WELL DEFINED EYE. A 022231Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTED
THE ASSESSMENT OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING, WITH THE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND SYMMETRICAL, LIKELY PRIMARILY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CORE
INTERACT WITH LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY
TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER IN LIGHT OF
AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.7 (137 KNOTS) AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. BASED ON A REANALYSIS OF
A 021518Z ASCAT PASS, THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
35 AND 50 KNOT WINDS ALREADY EXTENDING FAR INLAND. TC FANI LIES IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30 DEG
CELSIUS) AND STRONG, NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TC FANI IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR CENTERED OVER
THAILAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PURI, INDIA
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAY MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE
OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF BALASORE, INDIA BUT OVERALL, AFTER INITIAL
LANDFALL, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
NEAR CALCUTTA, THEN ACROSS NORTHERN BANGLADESH, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.zinfos974.com/Le-Super-Cyclone-FANI-01B-frappe-la-ville-de-Puri-en-Inde_a140039.html
SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS JUST BELOW
Location: 19.0°N 85.5°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 923 mb
CATEGORY 4 US
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC FANI HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED FROM ITS
PEAK ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO, WITH THE WELL-DEFINED EYE BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW
FIX LOCATION, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF INDIAN RADAR DATA DEPICTING
THE WELL DEFINED EYE. A 022231Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTED
THE ASSESSMENT OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING, WITH THE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND SYMMETRICAL, LIKELY PRIMARILY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CORE
INTERACT WITH LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY
TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER IN LIGHT OF
AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.7 (137 KNOTS) AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. BASED ON A REANALYSIS OF
A 021518Z ASCAT PASS, THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
35 AND 50 KNOT WINDS ALREADY EXTENDING FAR INLAND. TC FANI LIES IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30 DEG
CELSIUS) AND STRONG, NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TC FANI IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR CENTERED OVER
THAILAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PURI, INDIA
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAY MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE
OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF BALASORE, INDIA BUT OVERALL, AFTER INITIAL
LANDFALL, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
NEAR CALCUTTA, THEN ACROSS NORTHERN BANGLADESH, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN
2231UTC
1918UTC
