South China Sea: TS WIPHA(08W) will be entering the Gulf of Tonkin in approx 24hours

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS WIPHA(08W)
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 31, 2019:
Location: 19.4°N 112.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, BUT POORLY-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI). THE MSI LOOP ALSO REVEALS THAT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON A
310232Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WIND
BARBS AROUND AN OBLONG LLCC. THIS AGREES WITH A 310740Z ADT ESTIMATE
OF 33 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH
FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND
INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, PASS OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA AROUND TAU 18, ENTER THE GULF OF TONKIN NEAR TAU 24, AND
MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HANOI AROUND TAU 48. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 35 KNOTS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS JUST AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. BASED ON ALONG
TRACK SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 08W WILL CONTINUE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.//
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