South China Sea: INVEST 92W expected to develop after 24hours

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 29, 2019:
Location: 17.1°N 116.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLC. A 290135Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. A 282239Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.