Pacific Ocean still active: several systems monitored both West and East of the dateline, 03/03utc updates

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 12W AND 13W.

TD 12W. WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36H ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. INVEST 99W, CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHWARD, MOVING TO WITHIN 925 KM OF TD 12W BY 24H. THEREAFTER THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE STEADILY CLOSER TO ONE ANOTHER AND TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY 99W BY 36H THROUGH BINARY INTERACTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS ITS OUTFLOW SOURCE CUTOFF, RESULTING IN DECREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS, LIMITING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 99W, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 36H.

TD 12W.SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A 022357UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES.

TD 12W.MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS JUMPING VORTEXES FROM TD 12W TO INVEST 99W AFTER 36H. GUIDANCE THROUGH 36H IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DEVIATES FROM HWRF AFTER 24H WITH AN EXPECTED DISSIPATION SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH 99W.

TD 13W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 24H AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ORIENTS EAST OF TAIWAN. TD 13W CURRENTLY SITS ON THE EDGE OF A BORDERLINE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR AND DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW, TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO BE BUOYED BY SUSTAINED WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREE CELSIUS) IF IT SLIPS THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 40KNOTS AT 36H AS SHEAR DECREASES SLIGHTLY. AFTERWARDS, TD 13W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES. LAND INTERACTION IS A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TD 13W ATTEMPTS TO THREAD THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

TD 13W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

TD 13W(INVEST 90W). MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK OF TD 13W IS CURRENTLY PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS, HOWEVER, GFS DETERMINISTIC DIVERGES TO THE NORTH AND HEADS INLAND WHEREAS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TAIWAN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR SKIRTING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA.

INVEST 97W.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 140.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022026UTC SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW-MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENDED TRACK AND ANTICIPATED INTENSITY OF 97W. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA. UKMET AND JGSM AT THIS TIME GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SHOW LITTLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT CONTINUES IN A SIMILAR NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

INVEST 99W.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 140.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 141E, APPROXIMATELY 645 KM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. A 022359UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TROUGH, WHILE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 030320UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 08E(HIDLA). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 03/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BUT IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 06/00UTC.

08E(HILDA). GUIDANCE.

TS 10E(IGNACIO). WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 03/04UTC.

10E(IGNACIO). GUIDANCE.

REMNANTS OF TD 09E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 02/2330UTC.1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 130.8W TO 17.3N 135.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021808Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 09E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N 130.9W, APPROXIMATELY 2670 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022221UTC ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 09E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

REMNANTS OF TD 09W. GUIDANCE.

03/00UTC.

03/00UTC.