CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF 02S(BHEKI).
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 99B
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 439 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL STRUGGLING TO FOCUS AND CONSOLIDATE, BUT THE ENERGY IN THE MONSOON TROF HAS INCREASED, WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ALL THE WAY FROM THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA TO OVER SRI LANKA. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR AND IS PAIRED WITH ITS TWIN CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, INVEST 96S. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SYSTEM IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. THE MJO PULSE PROVIDING THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS BEFORE TRACKING OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
TC Ensemble Forecasts
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA.
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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 96S
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR AND IS PAIRED WITH ITS TWIN CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, INVEST 99B. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM ALL SIDES AND THERE IS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM INCLUDING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BELOW 10KTS OVER THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE MJO PULSE PROVIDING THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS BEFORE TRACKING OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
TC Ensemble Forecasts
BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
