Météo974
INVEST 99W
Location: 7.9°N 139.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
INTENSIFYING
ABPW10 PGTW 240200
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23AUG19 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.7N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 145.1E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 232349Z MHS
METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A BROAD, MIDLEVEL TURNING WITH
EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WEAK, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION. A 232351Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SIMILARLY REVEALS A
DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 10-15 KNOT
WIND BARBS. 99W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 - 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS BAILU(12W)
Location: 21.4°N 122.1°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFICINVEST 99W
Location: 7.9°N 139.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
INTENSIFYING
ABPW10 PGTW 240200
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23AUG19 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.7N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 145.1E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 232349Z MHS
METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A BROAD, MIDLEVEL TURNING WITH
EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WEAK, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION. A 232351Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SIMILARLY REVEALS A
DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 10-15 KNOT
WIND BARBS. 99W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 - 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS BAILU(12W)
Location: 21.4°N 122.1°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
24/0110UTC. INVEST 99W.
23/1906UTC. INVEST 99W
24/0110UTC.BAILU(12W).
