JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 99P.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: INVEST 99P. UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 08/01UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 174.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 172.7E, APPROXIMATELY 500 KM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 071843Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10- 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES WARNING CRITERIA(35KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES WARNING CRITERIA(35KNOTS).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/CORAL SEA: INVEST 90P. NOW ON THE JTWC MAP. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 08/01UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 450 KM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 072023Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING IS APPARENT AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 90P WILL DEEPEN AS IT LOITERS NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SPLIT. GFS ENSEMBLE FAVOURS A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. ECMWF ENSEMBLE DOWN BELOW FAVOURS A TRACK OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
07/18UTC. ECWMF AT +240H.
