Météo974
Location: 14.8°N 150.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141701Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. BASED ON
THOSE IMAGES, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
141127Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE AND A 141200Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
A BROAD REGION OF 25-30 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE
ASCAT PASSES AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0
(25 KTS). STRONG (25-50 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SHALLOW, NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSITY TO 30 KTS OR LESS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, OFFSETTING
THE UNLIKELY HWRF PEAK OF 45 KTS AT TAU 24, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER, AS THE CURRENTLY UNDER
CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
SPREAD INCREASES AS TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM THE
OTHERS (UKMET IS SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AND THE 140000Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS, NEAR THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
Location: 23.1°N 135.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 141730
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9N 134.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY
460 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141203Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DISORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMEENT THAT 95W WILL BE NEAR STATIONARY
AND REMAIN VERY BROAD WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
140930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 28.1°N 142.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 141730
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.5N 143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY
514 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141204Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHOUT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 141203Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING TO THE
EAST. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL
(24 TO 26 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT
98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD, REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A LARGER
CIRCULATION, AND DEVELOPING A STRONGER WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFICLocation: 14.8°N 150.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141701Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. BASED ON
THOSE IMAGES, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
141127Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE AND A 141200Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
A BROAD REGION OF 25-30 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE
ASCAT PASSES AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0
(25 KTS). STRONG (25-50 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SHALLOW, NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSITY TO 30 KTS OR LESS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, OFFSETTING
THE UNLIKELY HWRF PEAK OF 45 KTS AT TAU 24, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER, AS THE CURRENTLY UNDER
CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
SPREAD INCREASES AS TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM THE
OTHERS (UKMET IS SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AND THE 140000Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS, NEAR THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
Location: 23.1°N 135.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 141730
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9N 134.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY
460 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141203Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DISORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMEENT THAT 95W WILL BE NEAR STATIONARY
AND REMAIN VERY BROAD WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
140930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 28.1°N 142.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 141730
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.5N 143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY
514 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141204Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHOUT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 141203Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING TO THE
EAST. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL
(24 TO 26 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT
98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD, REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A LARGER
CIRCULATION, AND DEVELOPING A STRONGER WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
17W: WARNING 1. FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY: 30KNOTS WITHIN 36H
14/18UTC: 17W
14/2030UTC
17W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
