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Invest 97S over-land but still under watch// Invest 98S first update, 26/06utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 97S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 97S.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/NORTHERN AUSTRALIA: INVEST 97S. DOWN-GADED TO LOW AT 25/18UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 25/18UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND/OR ENLARGED.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 11.5S 130.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 70  KM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED  CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER  (LLCC). RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 97S HAS MADE LANDFALL  ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE TOP END REGION OF AUSTRALIA. ALBEIT  OVER LAND, JTWC HAS DOWNGRADED THE INVEST TO A LOW. GLOBAL MODELS  AGREE THAT THE VORTEX WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE  SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF  CARPENTARIA IN APPROXIMATELY 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED  TO LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 70 KM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 97S HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE TOP END REGION OF AUSTRALIA. ALBEIT OVER LAND, JTWC HAS DOWNGRADED THE INVEST TO A LOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE VORTEX WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IN APPROXIMATELY 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

 



SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 98S. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY WEAK AND IS NOT OVER THE JTWC MAP YET. KEEPING TABS ON IT.





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, December 26th 2021 à 12:30