Invest 97S intensifying off Madagascar// Invest 96P: subtropical, 07/09utc

07/10UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 810 KM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DEFINED BY FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPRETURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.1S 168.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 940 KM SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 060406Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPARSE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DRY SLOT AND A PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 C), DRY AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE DISTURBANCE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND POLEWARD OF THE JET FOR 72- 96 HOURS UNTIL IT COMES INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

07/0715UTC.