SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/TIMOR SEA: INVEST 97S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 24/21UTC.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND/OR ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 115 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
