Invest 95W, remnants of TC 02S(TERATAI), remnants of TC 05B(JAWAD), 06/06utc updates

06/0950UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 100.3E, APPROXIMATELY 580 KM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SMALL POCKETS OF HIGHER WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S WILL TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS NAVGEM, GFS AND CFC, ALONG WITH A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECMWF AND GFS, AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER MAKING THE SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.