Invest 93W: expected to "DEVELOP LIKE A HOUSE ON FIRE" after 48hours// Invest 94W set to develop once over the Andaman Sea, 28/11utc

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320KM NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272101Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISJOINTED PATCH OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL 2341Z ACSAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE CUSP WHILE ASLO REVEALING SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AS OF YET THERE IS NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (0515KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE THERE IS NO CLOSED ISOBAR OR CLOSED LLC AT THIS TIME, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CUSP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE 24 HOURS FOLLOWING. 93W WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP LIKE A HOUSE ON FIRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272101Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISJOINTED PATCH OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL 2341Z ACSAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE CUSP WHILE ASLO REVEALING SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AS OF YET THERE IS NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).

WHILE THERE IS NO CLOSED ISOBAR OR CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER(LLC) AT THIS TIME, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CUSP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE 24 HOURS FOLLOWING. 93W WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP LIKE A HOUSE ON FIRE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH TURNING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 272135Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS BROAD, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND NO DISCRETE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS, MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WESTWARD TRACK OF 94W ACROSS THE STRAIT OF MALACCA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, HOWEVER, INDICATES SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WESTWARD TRACK OF 94W ACROSS THE STRAIT OF MALACCA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, HOWEVER, INDICATES SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A WEAKER SYSTEM.

28/1030UTC.