Invest 93S: 3rd Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued, 23/02utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 93S.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 330 KM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 47.1E TO 16.2S 39.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 46.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 30 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 48.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 46.7E, APPROXIMATELY 170KM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANAVIRO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED AND COMPACT AREA OF WRAPPING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 93S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.