Menu

Invest 92W set to intensify once over the SCS//93W and 91S too weak to be on the map yet//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) still a CAT 2,04/06utc





WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 92W. DOWN-GRADED FROM HIGH TO MEDIUM AT 03/2230UTC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.63N 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 515 KM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92W HAS TRACKED OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF IMMEDIATE FORMATION. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INVEST 92W WILL TRACK WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.63N 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 515 KM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92W HAS TRACKED OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF IMMEDIATE FORMATION. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INVEST 92W WILL TRACK WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
9221100106  60N1373E  15
9221100112  62N1360E  15
9221100118  63N1348E  15
9221100200  64N1338E  15
9221100206  66N1328E  15
9221100212  68N1318E  20
9221100218  71N1305E  20
9221100300  75N1297E  20
9221100306  82N1281E  20
9221100312  87N1271E  20
9221100318  94N1260E  20
9221100400 101N1251E  20
9221100406  97N1229E  20
NNNN

MODELS VARY REGARDING INTENSITY WITH GFS DETERMINISTIC BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INDICATING INVEST 92W WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR WARNING CRITERIA.
MODELS VARY REGARDING INTENSITY WITH GFS DETERMINISTIC BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INDICATING INVEST 92W WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR WARNING CRITERIA.

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 03B(SHAHEEN-GULAB). WARNING 24/FINAL ISSUED AT 03/21UTC

Invest 92W set to intensify once over the SCS//93W and 91S too weak to be on the map yet//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) still a CAT 2,04/06utc
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 70 KNOTS/CAT 1
0321092312 175N 947E  15
0321092318 177N 940E  20
0321092400 180N 934E  20
0321092406 185N 921E  35
0321092412 183N 910E  35
0321092418 183N 903E  35
0321092500 182N 897E  35
0321092506 182N 893E  35
0321092512 182N 888E  40
0321092518 183N 882E  40
0321092600 184N 871E  40
0321092606 184N 853E  40
0321092612 184N 843E  40
0321092618 180N 833E  35
0321092700 180N 821E  30
0321092706 182N 811E  25
0321092712 191N 801E  25
0321092718 195N 790E  20
0321092800 198N 779E  20
0321092806 200N 772E  20
0321092812 203N 767E  20
0321092818 208N 755E  20
0321092900 215N 741E  20
0321092906 221N 726E  25
0321092912 226N 714E  25
0321092918 226N 697E  25
0321093000 225N 689E  25
0321093006 227N 682E  25
0321093012 227N 669E  30
0321093018 228N 662E  40
0321100100 229N 653E  45
0321100106 231N 644E  50
0321100112 236N 638E  60
0321100118 237N 632E  60
0321100200 238N 625E  65
0321100206 241N 616E  60
0321100212 242N 608E  65
0321100218 242N 600E  65
0321100300 242N 593E  70
0321100306 241N 586E  70
0321100312 240N 581E  65
0321100318 238N 574E  55
NNNN
 

TC 03B(SHAHEEN-GULAB). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TC 03B(SHAHEEN-GULAB). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


ATLANTIC: HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 46 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 90KNOTS/CAT 2 AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 06/00UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 90KNOTS/CAT 2 AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 06/00UTC.
1821091900 103N 115W  15
1821091906 100N 131W  15
1821091912  98N 147W  15
1821091918  96N 163W  15
1821092000  95N 178W  20
1821092006  95N 193W  25
1821092012  93N 210W  25
1821092018  94N 228W  25
1821092100  95N 247W  25
1821092106  95N 261W  25
1821092112  95N 273W  25
1821092118  95N 285W  25
1821092200  96N 296W  25
1821092206  96N 307W  25
1821092212  98N 319W  30
1821092218 100N 331W  30
1821092300 102N 344W  30
1821092306 105N 360W  35
1821092312 107N 376W  45
1821092318 109N 391W  50
1821092406 114N 416W  65
1821092412 116N 431W  65
1821092418 119N 443W  70
1821092500 123N 454W  85
1821092506 127N 463W  95
1821092512 128N 472W 105
1821092518 131N 481W 115
1821092600 134N 487W 125
1821092606 137N 494W 125
1821092612 138N 500W 130
1821092618 140N 503W 135
1821092700 145N 506W 130
1821092706 150N 511W 115
1821092712 154N 517W 105
1821092718 159N 523W 105
1821092800 165N 529W 105
1821092806 170N 536W 115
1821092812 173N 541W 115
1821092818 177N 547W 115
1821092900 181N 553W 115
1821092906 186N 559W 115
1821092912 191N 566W 115
1821092918 197N 573W 115
1821093000 203N 580W 125
1821093006 210N 588W 125
1821093012 220N 596W 125
1821093018 230N 604W 125
1821100100 243N 610W 125
1821100106 258N 616W 130
1821100112 276N 619W 130
1821100118 292N 619W 130
1821100200 307N 615W 125
1821100206 321N 610W 120
1821100212 333N 598W 115
1821100218 348N 587W 110
1821100300 359N 577W 100
1821100306 367N 566W  90
1821100312 373N 554W  85
1821100318 380N 538W  85
1821100400 387N 522W  90

HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

HU 18L(SAM). 04/0620UTC.
HU 18L(SAM). 04/0620UTC.


ATLANTIC: TD 20L(VICTOR). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 25KNOTS BY 04/12UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 25KNOTS BY 04/12UTC.
2021092900  70N 220W  30
2021092906  75N 234W  30
2021092912  80N 241W  30
2021092918  81N 251W  35
2021093000  83N 260W  35
2021093006  87N 271W  40
2021093012  92N 284W  40
2021093018  98N 295W  40
2021100100 105N 306W  50
2021100106 110N 317W  50
2021100112 114N 330W  55
2021100118 118N 338W  55
2021100200 121N 349W  50
2021100206 125N 358W  45
2021100212 127N 367W  35
2021100218 134N 376W  30
2021100300 145N 385W  30
2021100306 151N 392W  30
2021100312 157N 400W  30
2021100318 166N 408W  30
2021100400 174N 424W  30
 

TD 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TD 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

04/0615UTC.
04/0615UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, October 4th 2021 à 10:53
Les News
Liens utiles
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Former Super Typhoon 25W(MAN-YI) dissipating//TC 02S(BHEKI) peaked at CAT 4 US gradually weakening approaching MASCARENE Islands//1909utc

Super Typhoon 25W(MAN-YI) landfall South of CASIGURAN/LUZON//TC 02S(BHEKI) Strong CAT 3 US above forecast//1709utc

Super Typhoon 25W(MAN-YI) bearing down on the PHILIPPINES//TC 02S(BHEKI) reached CAT 1 US//Super Typhoon 27W(USAGI) Final Warning//1609utc

Typhoon 25W(MAN-YI) intensifying//TC 02S(BHEKI) intensifying// TY 27W(USAGI) weakening//1503utc

27W(USAGI) reached Super Typhoon Intensity//25W(MAN-YI) intensifying strongly next 48h//INVEST 95S soon to be numbered TC 02S//1409utc