Invest 92W now on the map//TC 03B intensifying and approaching Oman//Former STY 20W(MINDULLE) now extratropical,Atlantic duo update,02/09utc

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN TURN WEST AND ULTIMATELY SOUTHWEST 36H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF OMAN, NEAR SOHAR. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 03B HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN AN EYE DUE TO A BURST OF STRONGER NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH EXPOSED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS ALREADY WEAKENING AND HWRF SYNTHETIC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAXIMUM SHEAR IN THE 200-300MB LEVEL ARE NOW DOWN TO 10-17 KNOTS. THE REAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE OVER THE PAST HOUR SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS. LIKEWISE, CIMSS AUTOMATED SHEAR ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH BASED ON HAND ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE DEEP-LAYER AVERAGE SHEAR VECTOR IS FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AND THE SYSTEM IS SO FAR SUCCESSFULLY PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE SHEAR, AS EVIDENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WELL OUT TO THE EAST OF THE CORE. A VERY SMALL BUT FAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY INCREASE TO THE WEST, ALONG THE SYSTEMS PATH, TO 30-31C BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL. LASTLY, AND SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN, ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT TC 03B IS SNUGGLY COCOONED WITHIN A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE, AND WHILE ENTRAINMENT OF SOME DRY AIR AND DUST IS TO BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FROM THE NORTH, MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT SINCE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO A VERY SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 24H. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE OVER THE EMPTY QUARTER REGION.

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR SOHAR/OMAN SHORTLY AFTER 03/18UTC AS A 70KNOT CYCLONE/CAT 1.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RELATIVELY COMPACT, AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH A CLOUD-FILLED AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. WHILE IN THE VISIBLE THE EYE REMAINS CLOUD-COVERED AND RAGGED, AND SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF SHEAR, A 020505Z GMI PASS REVEALED A VERY WELL DEFINED AND VERTICALLY STACKED MICROWAVE EYE. CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER, THOUGH WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE WHICH LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A 020600Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS ON THIS CYCLE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DATA INCLUDING THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND DEMS, AN EARLIER 020148Z SMAP FIX OF 62 KNOTS (1-MIN CONVERSION), AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS WHICH INDICATED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 52 KNOTS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. OF NOTE, THE CIMSS ADT VALUES AT 0600Z WERE VERY LOW, WITH BOTH RAW AND CI AT 39 KNOTS, BUT BY 0700Z THE RAW ADT HAS JUMPED BACK UP TO T5.1 AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, SPREAD INCREASING TO 220 KM AT LANDFALL. THE UKMET ENSEMBLE TRACKER REMAINS THE SOUTHERN, OR LEFT SIDE OUTLIER, MOVING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTHWARD AFTER 12H, WITH A LANDFALL NEAR MUSCAT, OMAN. THE GFS AND NAVGEM REMAIN THE NORTHERN, OR RIGHT SIDE OUTLIERS, WITH THE GFS PROJECTING A FLATTER TRACK, MOVING THE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE OMAN, UAE BORDER REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACKERS ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MEAN AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, IF SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH THE COAMPS-TC AND GFS INDICATING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. HWRF HOWEVER INDICATES A MUCH HIGHER PEAK APPROACHING 90 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST PEAK IS INCREASED BY 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LIGHT OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, AND LIES ABOVE ALL BUT THE HWRF GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 915 KM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 020148Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED NO ROTATION AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, AS THE ASSOCIATED ROTATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. INVEST 92W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE 92W WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 115KNOTS/CAT 4 AND OIS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 04/06UTC.

HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

NHC/MIAMI WROTE:"The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters conducted their final mission into Sam a few hours ago and found that the hurricane is still of category 4 intensity, but the maximum winds have decreased some. The crew reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 130 kt (equating to surface winds of 115-120 kt) and unflagged SFMR winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these wind data, Sam's intensity is now estimated to be 115 kt. This value is at the upper end of the latest satellite estimates, which range from 100-115 kt. The hurricane's central pressure has also risen to 945 mb."

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 45KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 03/06UTC.

TS 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

02/0915UTC.