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Invest 92W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert East of Mindanao//TC 03B(SHAHEEN-GULAB) CAT 1, approaching Oman//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) still a CAT3,03/03utc






WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 92W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 02/2230UTC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1330 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022012Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1330 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022012Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
9221100106  60N1373E  15
9221100112  62N1360E  15
9221100118  63N1348E  15
9221100200  64N1338E  15
9221100206  66N1328E  15
9221100212  68N1318E  20
9221100218  71N1305E  20
9221100300  75N1294E  20
NNNN

INVEST 92W. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
INVEST 92W. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/ARABIAN SEA: TC 03B(SHAHEEN/GULAB). WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 03B IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JUST BEFORE LANDFALL IN OMAN. DESPITE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE INNER CORE OF TC 03B AT A 65 KNOT/CAT1 INTENSITY UP TO 12H. AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD MOVES FURTHER OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER LAND, WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS BY 36H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 03B IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JUST BEFORE LANDFALL IN OMAN. DESPITE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE INNER CORE OF TC 03B AT A 65 KNOT/CAT1 INTENSITY UP TO 12H. AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD MOVES FURTHER OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER LAND, WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS BY 36H.
0321092312 175N 947E  15
0321092318 177N 940E  20
0321092400 180N 934E  20
0321092406 185N 921E  35
0321092412 183N 910E  35
0321092418 183N 903E  35
0321092500 182N 897E  35
0321092506 182N 893E  35
0321092512 182N 888E  40
0321092518 183N 882E  40
0321092600 184N 871E  40
0321092606 184N 853E  40
0321092612 184N 843E  40
0321092618 180N 833E  35
0321092700 180N 821E  30
0321092706 182N 811E  25
0321092712 191N 801E  25
0321092718 195N 790E  20
0321092800 198N 779E  20
0321092806 200N 772E  20
0321092812 203N 767E  20
0321092818 208N 755E  20
0321092900 215N 741E  20
0321092906 221N 726E  25
0321092912 226N 714E  25
0321092918 226N 697E  25
0321093000 225N 689E  25
0321093006 227N 682E  25
0321093012 227N 669E  30
0321093018 228N 662E  40
0321100100 229N 653E  45
0321100106 231N 644E  50
0321100112 236N 638E  60
0321100118 237N 632E  60
0321100200 238N 625E  65
0321100206 241N 616E  60
0321100212 244N 607E  65
0321100218 243N 601E  65
0321100300 243N 594E  65
NNNN
 

Invest 92W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert East of Mindanao//TC 03B(SHAHEEN-GULAB) CAT 1, approaching Oman//Atlantic: 18L(SAM) still a CAT3,03/03utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 06B HAS DEGRADED, HOWEVER A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SUSTAINED NEAR THE CENTER, MOST LIKELY FUELED BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF OMAN, SUGGESTING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND THE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS MAY NOT HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED OFF OF THE PGTW FIX POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS/CAT 1). THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE LAND INTERACTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL FIELD CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST DRY INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING INTENSITY.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 06B HAS DEGRADED, HOWEVER A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SUSTAINED NEAR THE CENTER, MOST LIKELY FUELED BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF OMAN, SUGGESTING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND THE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS MAY NOT HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED OFF OF THE PGTW FIX POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS/CAT 1). THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE LAND INTERACTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL FIELD CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST DRY INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING INTENSITY.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL, WITH A 75 KM CROSS-SPREAD AT THE COAST OF OMAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING ONLY A 5 KNOT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR STEADILY DECREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE A LANDFALL. THE EXCEPTION IS HWRF, WHICH RAPIDLY INCREASES THE SYSTEM TO 105 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HWRF HAS BEEN FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, BUT NO INDICATIONS OF RI HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL, WITH A 75 KM CROSS-SPREAD AT THE COAST OF OMAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING ONLY A 5 KNOT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR STEADILY DECREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE A LANDFALL. THE EXCEPTION IS HWRF, WHICH RAPIDLY INCREASES THE SYSTEM TO 105 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HWRF HAS BEEN FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, BUT NO INDICATIONS OF RI HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.



ATLANTIC: HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 42 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 100KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 05/00UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 100KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 05/00UTC.
1821091900 103N 115W  15
1821091906 100N 131W  15
1821091912  98N 147W  15
1821091918  96N 163W  15
1821092000  95N 178W  20
1821092006  95N 193W  25
1821092012  93N 210W  25
1821092018  94N 228W  25
1821092100  95N 247W  25
1821092106  95N 261W  25
1821092112  95N 273W  25
1821092118  95N 285W  25
1821092200  96N 296W  25
1821092206  96N 307W  25
1821092212  98N 319W  30
1821092218 100N 331W  30
1821092300 102N 344W  30
1821092306 105N 360W  35
1821092312 107N 376W  45
1821092318 109N 391W  50
1821092400 111N 403W  60
1821092406 114N 416W  65
1821092412 116N 431W  65
1821092418 119N 443W  70
1821092500 123N 454W  85
1821092506 127N 463W  95
1821092512 128N 472W 105
1821092518 131N 481W 115
1821092600 134N 487W 125
1821092606 137N 494W 125
1821092612 138N 500W 130
1821092618 140N 503W 135
1821092700 145N 506W 130
1821092706 150N 511W 115
1821092712 154N 517W 105
1821092718 159N 523W 105
1821092800 165N 529W 105
1821092806 170N 536W 115
1821092812 173N 541W 115
1821092818 177N 547W 115
1821092900 181N 553W 115
1821092906 186N 559W 115
1821092912 191N 566W 115
1821092918 197N 573W 115
1821093000 203N 580W 125
1821093006 210N 588W 125
1821093012 220N 596W 125
1821093018 230N 604W 125
1821100100 243N 610W 125
1821100106 258N 616W 130
1821100112 276N 619W 130
1821100118 292N 619W 130
1821100200 307N 615W 125
1821100206 321N 610W 120
1821100212 333N 598W 115
1821100218 348N 587W 110
1821100300 359N 577W 100
 

HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ATLANTIC: TD 20L(VICTOR). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 25KNOTS BY 04/12UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AT 25KNOTS BY 04/12UTC.
2021092900  70N 220W  30
2021092906  75N 234W  30
2021092912  80N 241W  30
2021092918  81N 251W  35
2021093000  83N 260W  35
2021093006  87N 271W  40
2021093012  92N 284W  40
2021093018  98N 295W  40
2021100100 105N 306W  50
2021100100 105N 306W  50
2021100106 110N 317W  50
2021100112 114N 330W  55
2021100118 118N 338W  55
2021100200 121N 349W  50
2021100206 125N 358W  45
2021100212 127N 367W  35
2021100218 133N 375W  30
2021100300 143N 384W  30

TD 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TD 20L(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

03/0315UTC.
03/0315UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, October 3rd 2021 à 06:00
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