Invest 91W south of Guam: still Medium chances of development

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 26, 2019:
Location: 10.9°N 148.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 260600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 149.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50
NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GUAM
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 260005Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 252332Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION OVER
AND TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM WITH LIGHT CORE WINDS AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER GUAM
ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1009MB (24-HOUR SLP DECREASE
OF ONLY 1MB). INVEST 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29-30
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W
WILL CONSOLIDATE WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. BASED ON THE GRADUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.