Intensifying TC 11P(DOVI) tracking close to New Caledonia within 12h, to peak at 75kts/CAT 1 US by 36hours//Invest 93S, 10/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 11P(DOVI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 11P AND INVEST 93S.

10/0220UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 11P HAS PICKED UP SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS STRONGLY TAKEN OVER THE STEERING PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, CLIPPING THE COAST OF MARE ISLAND AND TRANSITING VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF PINES. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER 24H, AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY 36H, THEN GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE PASSAGE OVER OR NEAR THE LARGER ISLANDS OF NEW CALEDONIA WILL DISRUPT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CORE, LIMITING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTER CLEARING THE ISLANDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN INDUCED FLOW DISRUPTION. THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED HOWEVER AND THE PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 US BY 36H. AFTER 36H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT COLD FRONT, QUICKLY CROSS THE STRONG SST GRADIENT INTO SUB-26C WATERS, AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SHEAR, MARKING THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NO LATER THAN 72H, BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 60H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. THE MSI INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE WHICH HAS BEEN VISIBLE FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION AND VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) ARE OBSERVED DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVING UPSHEAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS YET TO FULLY ENCIRCLE THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, RADAR DATA FROM NEW CALEDONIA AND A COUPLE OF BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASSES PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN THE MSI HAS BECOME MORE CENTERED IN RELATION TO THE SCATTEROMETER AND RADAR INDICATED CENTERS, BUT HAS YET TO FULLY CLOSE OFF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND IS STILL A BIT OFF-CENTERED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A BLEND OF INFORMATION INCLUDING MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5, THE ADT ESIMATES OF T3.5 AND ANALYSIS OF THE 092130Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS WHICH INDICATED 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, CONFIRMED BY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ANEITYUM ISLAND. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, AND LOW WIND SHEAR. CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED POINT SOURCE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP, HOWEVER THE ANIMATED MSI INDICATES STRONG ANTICYCLONIC BANDING NEAR THE CENTER INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE IMMEDIATELY IN VICINITY OF THE CORE.

092130Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS WHICH INDICATED 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, CONFIRMED BY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ANEITYUM ISLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH 72H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PEAKING AT OR BELOW 50 KNOTS, WHILE THE DECAY SHIPS SUGGESTS STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK CLOSE TO 85 KNOTS/CAT 2 US. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ABOUT FIVE KNOTS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THEN TRACKS THE MEAN THROUGH 72H. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAIN IMPACTS FROM THE TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND THE SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 105.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 106.6E, APPROXIMATELY 720KM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 100015Z GMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY NOW INDICATING RELATIVELY SMALL PROBABILITIES FOR THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYLCONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.