INVEST 99B// REMNANTS OF TC 02S(BHEKI)// INVEST 96S// 2306utc updates

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF 02S.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 222155Z SSMIS F18 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED, YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WEST WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASE II MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PAUSE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE FAR WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION DEEPENING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF SUMATRA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MEANDERING AND SPINNING DOWN. MORE STRATIFORM FIELDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED AND DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE EDGE OF MINIMALLY SUBSTANTIVE 26C DEGREE WATERS BUT DRY AIR IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ENTRAINED INTO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED A BIT TO THE GENEROUS SIDE BASED ON AUTOMATED ASSESSMENTS OF 39KTS FROM AIDT AND 38KTS FROM THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS. ADT AND DPRINT ASSESMENTS OF 30KTS FACTOR IN FOR A RESONABLE AVERAGE OF 35KTS. DUE TO THE STRONG DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, THE MORE LOWER SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS ARE DISMISSED. THIS ONE IS TOAST FOLKS. TIME TO LET IT GO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MOINTORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET.