INVEST 98W: northwest track and gradual intensification possible next 24/48hours. Area now MEDIUM

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 98W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 15, 2019:
Location: 16.8°N 132.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 150600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
135.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
150041Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE AND A 150042Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION.
UPPER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SYSTEM IN AREA OF LOW (5-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.