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INVEST 96W// INVEST 95P// Over-land TC 04S(CHIDO)//1609utc



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JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 04S(CHIDO). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ALSO ISSUED ON 95P.
JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 04S(CHIDO). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ALSO ISSUED ON 95P.


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 96W. 20241216/06UTC ADVISORY

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160127Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH 15-20KT WINDS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, BETWEEN 29C AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160127Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH 15-20KT WINDS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, BETWEEN 29C AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: INVEST 95P.



SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: OVERLAND TC 04S(CHIDO).


ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 135 KNOTS/CAT 4 US SUPER TYPHOON

INVEST 96W// INVEST 95P// Over-land TC 04S(CHIDO)//1609utc
0424120506 119S 857E  15
0424120512 119S 854E  15
0424120518 119S 851E  20
0424120600 116S 845E  20
0424120606 113S 834E  20
0424120612 112S 809E  25
0424120618 109S 796E  20
0424120700 110S 778E  25
0424120706 107S 762E  25
0424120712 107S 744E  25
0424120718 111S 732E  25
0424120800 110S 711E  25
0424120806 107S 693E  25
0424120812 109S 679E  25
0424120818 112S 664E  30
0424120900 114S 652E  30
0424120906 117S 638E  35
0424120912 113S 631E  35
0424120918 112S 624E  40
0424121000 110S 616E  50
0424121000 110S 616E  50
0424121006 108S 608E  50
0424121006 108S 608E  50
0424121012 107S 602E  60
0424121018 105S 598E  60
0424121100 105S 591E  70
0424121106 105S 584E  85
0424121112 104S 575E 100
0424121118 104S 567E 120
0424121200 105S 556E 125
0424121206 107S 545E 135
0424121212 107S 532E 135
0424121218 109S 522E 125
0424121300 110S 510E 115
0424121306 111S 499E 105
0424121312 116S 488E 125
0424121318 119S 475E 110
0424121400 121S 464E 115
0424121406 126S 454E 115
0424121412 130S 441E 120
0424121418 132S 428E 115
0424121500 133S 414E 115
0424121506 133S 402E 100
0424121512 139S 387E  60
0424121518 140S 372E  50
0424121600 148S 358E  35
0424121606 151S 349E  25

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, December 16th 2024 à 13:37
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