INVEST 95W is likely to develop into a tropical depression within 24/48hours. TCFA issued by the JTWC

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 95W
As of 03:00 UTC Jun 28, 2019:
Location: 12.3°N 134.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
WTPN21 PGTW 280430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 134.4E TO 15.8N 130.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
137.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES REVEALS A
WELL-DEFINED, 20 KNOT SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH ISOLATED 25 KNOT
WINDS UNDERNEATH DEEP CONVECTION. A 280301Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE. 95W
IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30-31C). BASED ON THE
ASCAT DATA, THE CURRENT LLCC COULD DEVELOP INTO A WARNED TROPICAL
CYCLONE QUICKLY IF THE VWS RELAXES. INITIAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION,
BEFORE DEGRADING INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290430Z.
//
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