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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Location: 5.7°N 138.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 200130
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 192108Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION AND BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME MIDLEVEL
ROTATION. 94W IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL AREA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE IN
THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA AT 30-32 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST, POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Location: 5.7°N 138.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 200130
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 192108Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION AND BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME MIDLEVEL
ROTATION. 94W IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL AREA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE IN
THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA AT 30-32 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST, POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GFS GUIDANCE AT 19/18UTC
