INVEST 92S to intensify next 48h while approaching Northern MADAGASCAR//INVEST 91S//INVEST 93S//INVEST 90B//0900utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 92S, 91S AND ON 90B.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH REMAINS EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 98.4E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S 117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 93S WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 082220Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-30C OFFSET BY A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 10-30 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD BY 48 HOURS. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, GEFS AND ECENS ARE SPLIT WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO GEFS WHICH SHOWS ONLY VERY FEW MEMBERS FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD BY 48 HOURS. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, GEFS AND ECENS ARE SPLIT WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO GEFS WHICH SHOWS ONLY VERY FEW MEMBERS FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT.