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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 90B, 91S AND 92S.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE: SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 91S. 20241206/1930UTC ADVISORY
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 105.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 102.7E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 061243Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC WITH FLARING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 061454Z ASCAT METOP-B BULLSEYE INDICATES 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE: SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 92S. 20241206/1930UTC ADVISORY
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8S 79.2E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WHILE THE 061418Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 061554Z ASCAT-C METOP-C 50KM PASS REVEALS 20-25 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
