FRANCISCO(09W) still struggling to intensify, heading for Sasebo. 10W: gradually organizing

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 04, 2019:
Location: 28.5°N 141.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING LESS
OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION WHICH WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 030441Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE THAT SHOWED A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LLCC AND MOSTLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS FALLS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES FROM T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.
A 032359Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND
DISPLAYS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTAINED
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SASEBO UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE SPREAD AT 48 HOURS AT APPROXIMATELY
55 NM. AFTER PASSING SASEBO AROUND TAU 48, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. UNTIL
LANDFALL IN JAPAN AROUND TAU 36, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO AROUND 55 KNOTS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE
TO POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 09W SHOULD WEAKEN OVER KYUSHU
DUE TO THE RUGGED TERRAIN. A SECOND LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR NEAR BUSAN,
KOREA AROUND TAU 54. BASED ON TIGHT GROUPING OF THE MODEL DATA AND
THE STEADY INFLUENCE OF THE STR, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS, ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF SOUTH KOREA, AND PASS INTO THE
SEA OF JAPAN. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING
VWS, AND COOLER SST SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 96, TS 09W WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE PRIOR
TO TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
ALONG-TRACK SPEED. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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TD 10W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 04, 2019:
Location: 16.5°N 131.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45/50km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS AN AREA EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CIRCULATION WHERE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO BE CAUSING
CONSOLIDATION. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
PLACED NEAR THE APPARENT CONSOLIDATION IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND
CONSISTENT WITH A 040701Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A
BROAD SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS
BASED ON RJTD AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KTS) BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 30 KT WESTERLY
WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS
APPARENT ON A 070108Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 10W IS DRIFTING GENERALLY POLEWARD UNDER WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE
STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TD 10W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, REACHING 55 KTS BY TAU 72. MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS IN THE EARLY TAUS AS THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE LIKELY HAVING
DIFFICULTY IDENTIFYING THE LLCC IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. AFTER TAU
12, EGRR IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS A TRACK 150 NM WEST OF
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST, LARGELY OWING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TO
STEADILY INCREASE INTENSITY TO 80 KTS BY TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A SPLIT OCCURRING
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED IN
LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AS THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS VERY LOW PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INITIAL POSITION.//
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