https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-forecast-to-peak-within-12-24hours-and-make-landfall-over-Cape-York-shortly-before-48hours_a822.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-landfall-over-Cape-York-forecast-shortly-after-72hours_a820.html
Location: 16.0°S 156.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h )
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h )
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 156.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 121025Z 25KM RESOLUTION DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
FEW 50-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORAL SEA ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. TC
27P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST AROUND TAU 42 THEN CROSS INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
TEMPERED BY A VIGOROUS COLD DRY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE CORAL SEA,
WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 42. AFTERWARD, LANDFALL
AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS
IT APPROACHES GOVE ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE GOC. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-forecast-to-peak-within-12-24hours-and-make-landfall-over-Cape-York-shortly-before-48hours_a822.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-landfall-over-Cape-York-forecast-shortly-after-72hours_a820.html
Location: 16.0°S 156.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h )
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h )
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 156.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 121025Z 25KM RESOLUTION DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
FEW 50-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORAL SEA ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. TC
27P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST AROUND TAU 42 THEN CROSS INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
TEMPERED BY A VIGOROUS COLD DRY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE CORAL SEA,
WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 42. AFTERWARD, LANDFALL
AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS
IT APPROACHES GOVE ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE GOC. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 4/JTWC
FORECAST LANDFALL NEAR COEN/QUEENSLAND
1330UTC
12UTC
1139UTC
1023UTC
GUIDANCE( MODEL) FOR TC 26S
HWRF AT 06UTC: 50KT AT +0H
GFS AT 06UTC: 63KT AT +12H
