Category 4, 19S(FARAJI) annular -like cyclone has probably peaked, Invest 92P on the map, 08/09utc updates

19S(FARAJI). 08/09UTC LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE, AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 37 KM DIAMETER EYE. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.

08/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S. INVEST 92P REMAINS UNDER WATCH.

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC.TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) THAT IS OFFSET BY REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS LOSS OF PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY QUASI- STATIONARY (QS) TRACK MOTION, WILL PREVENT TC FARAJI FROM FURTHER INTENSIFYING, HOWEVER THE ANNULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM TO 100 KNOTS/CATEGORY 3 BY 48H. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER UNTIL 48H AT WHICH POINT A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI INITIALLY SOUTHWARD FROM 48H TO 72H, SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 72H TO 96H AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF CONTINUAL MODERATE WIND SHEAR AFTER 48H, COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY ENTRAINMENT OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST. BY 120H, THESE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION FROM EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SLIGHT RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS FROM NAVGEM.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0804UTC. NOAA-20.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0733UTC. NOAA-20.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0804UTC. MICROWAVE STILL DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A STRONG CORE AND A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE SIGNATURE IS ALMOST ANNULAR.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0545UTC. MODIS/TERRA.

19S(FARAJI). LOSS OF PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15- 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE.

08/00UTC.