CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS ISSUING 12 HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 11S, TC 13S, TC 14S AND TC 15P. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON ALL SYSTEMS AND ON INVEST 92P.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN: TC 11S(FAIDA). FORECAST LANDFALL WITHIN 12H CLOSE TO TOAMASINA.
2025 0203 1030UTC AND SATELLITE BULLETIN
TPXS11 PGTW 030922
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 17.85S
D. 50.99E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 03UTC
WDXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 51.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 18 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM,
POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MADAGASCAR, HAS DEEPENED AND THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXPANDED AS IT TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE
022133 AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS ALSO
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED CIMSS ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SST, MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LIGHT VWS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS SUBSIDED.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 022202Z
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 02330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR AROUND
TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, EXIT INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AROUND TAU 60, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL
MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE TAU 120. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM; HOWEVER BY TAU 12 WILL
DROP DOWN TO 45KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL
THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, BACK
ON WATER, TC 11S WILL REGAIN INTENSITY UP TO 45KTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT BUT WITH
A WIDE SPREAD TO 323NM AT TAU 72 AND 351NM AT TAU 120. THIS, PLUS
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
THAT CAN ALSO IMPACT THE TRACK, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 51.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 18 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM,
POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MADAGASCAR, HAS DEEPENED AND THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXPANDED AS IT TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE
022133 AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS ALSO
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED CIMSS ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SST, MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LIGHT VWS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS SUBSIDED.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 022202Z
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 02330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR AROUND
TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, EXIT INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AROUND TAU 60, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL
MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE TAU 120. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM; HOWEVER BY TAU 12 WILL
DROP DOWN TO 45KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL
THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, BACK
ON WATER, TC 11S WILL REGAIN INTENSITY UP TO 45KTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT BUT WITH
A WIDE SPREAD TO 323NM AT TAU 72 AND 351NM AT TAU 120. THIS, PLUS
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
THAT CAN ALSO IMPACT THE TRACK, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
SOUTH INDIAN: TC 13S(VINCE).
2025 0203 1040UTC AND SATELLITE BULLETIN
TPXS12 PGTW 030924 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) B. 03/0830Z C. 16.21S D. 94.77E E. FIVE/GK2A F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO PT. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE LINDGREN
WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 09UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 158.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE, EXPOSING THE NOW FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
SOUTH INDIAN/NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA: TC 14S(TALIAH).
2025 0203 1020UTC AND SATELLITE BULLETIN
TPXS13 PGTW 030926
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 15.01S
D. 113.70E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 4.5. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 15.01S
D. 113.70E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 4.5. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 09UTC
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 114.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 432 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO
THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A BROAD SWATH OF
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SYSTEM. ELEVATED
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE EXPOSED
EASTERN SECTOR. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS SEEMINGLY LESS LIKELY,
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE VWS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, AND
VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WOUND LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPOSED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE FROM A 022148Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWING
MANY 70 KNOT PIXELS WITH A SMALL PORTION OF 80-90 KNOT PIXELS IN A
SMALL AREA WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED TO BE TOO LOW TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ARE CLOSER AT 72 AND 64 KTS
RESPECTIVELY.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE MENTIONED SAR DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 030600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 030600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12, A WEAKENING TREND WILL ENSUE. THIS IS CAUSED BY A COUPLE OF
FACTORS. THE FIRST BEING THE PERSISTING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
SECOND BEING A TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY
TC 13S. AS A RESULT, 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO AROUND
50 KTS AT TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF 14S WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 125 NM
AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 12. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING, BUT
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A STEEPER WEAKENING TREND. HWRF IS AN OUTLIER
AFTER TAU 84, AS IT DEPICTS INTENSIFICATION VICE FURTHER WEAKENING.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 114.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 432 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO
THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A BROAD SWATH OF
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SYSTEM. ELEVATED
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE EXPOSED
EASTERN SECTOR. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS SEEMINGLY LESS LIKELY,
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE VWS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, AND
VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WOUND LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPOSED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE FROM A 022148Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWING
MANY 70 KNOT PIXELS WITH A SMALL PORTION OF 80-90 KNOT PIXELS IN A
SMALL AREA WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED TO BE TOO LOW TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ARE CLOSER AT 72 AND 64 KTS
RESPECTIVELY.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE MENTIONED SAR DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 030600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 030600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12, A WEAKENING TREND WILL ENSUE. THIS IS CAUSED BY A COUPLE OF
FACTORS. THE FIRST BEING THE PERSISTING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
SECOND BEING A TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY
TC 13S. AS A RESULT, 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO AROUND
50 KTS AT TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF 14S WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 125 NM
AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 12. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING, BUT
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A STEEPER WEAKENING TREND. HWRF IS AN OUTLIER
AFTER TAU 84, AS IT DEPICTS INTENSIFICATION VICE FURTHER WEAKENING.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
SOUTH PACIFIC: TC 15P.
2025 0203 0650UTC AND SATELLITE BULLETIN
TPPS11 PGTW 030928
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (E OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 21.00S
D. 168.13E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (E OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 21.00S
D. 168.13E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 03UTC
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.7S 167.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A HYBRID SYSTEM
THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS BOUND TO THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS
PARTLY EXPOSED UNDER THE LONG SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SPCZ. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) TO REFLECT THE
MOSTLY SUSTAINED 12-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG
VWS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 022340Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 25-30 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST CUT DOWN TO TAU 72 IN
ANTICIPATION OF EARLY DISSIPATION.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTH. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS
AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 120, POSSIBLY SOONER, AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE SPCZ.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN
SPREAD TO 125NM; HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
INTENSITY, TYPICAL OF HYBRID SYSTEMS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.7S 167.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A HYBRID SYSTEM
THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS BOUND TO THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS
PARTLY EXPOSED UNDER THE LONG SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SPCZ. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) TO REFLECT THE
MOSTLY SUSTAINED 12-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG
VWS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 022340Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 25-30 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST CUT DOWN TO TAU 72 IN
ANTICIPATION OF EARLY DISSIPATION.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTH. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS
AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 120, POSSIBLY SOONER, AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE SPCZ.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN
SPREAD TO 125NM; HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
INTENSITY, TYPICAL OF HYBRID SYSTEMS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
SOUTH PACIFIC: INVEST 92P. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 158.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE, EXPOSING THE NOW FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
2025 0203 0720UTC AND SATELLITE BULLETIN
TPPS10 PGTW 030930
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 15.87S
D. 160.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 15.87S
D. 160.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LINDGREN
