Bay of Bengal: Invest 91B is now HIGH, might reach 35knots prior to landfall in the next 24 hours, 10/2345utc

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 220 KM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 82.3E TO 13.7N 79.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111018Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 82.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 31 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101522Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED 150+ KM NORTHWESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PATCHES OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY UNDER THE FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 91B.