Arabian Sea: invest 93A likely to be a TC within 24hours and likely to intensify significantly next few days

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

INVEST 93A
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 10, 2019:
Location: 12.1°N 71.2°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WTIO21 PGTW 092230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 71.3E TO 15.9N 69.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 71.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 72.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 313
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
STRUCTURE. A 091556Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE
BANDING STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND CONFIRMS THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. INVEST 93A IS CURRENTLY
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (28-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD, ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND
INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102230Z.
//
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